12
to the Canadian economy would be up to $161.0 billion (2001 dollars) if all the educational gap
were eliminated and $126.3 billion if only half the educational gap was eliminated (Table B). In
2017 alone, GDP would be $21.5 billion and $16.9 billion higher respectively. These estimates
do not include the social benefits and the lower government expenditures that would arise from
increased Aboriginal educational attainment. Moreover, these estimates assume that Aboriginal
Canadians only reach the 2001 level of educational attainment of non-Aboriginal Canadians. It is
likely that over the 2001-2017 period, the educational attainment and employment rate of non-
Aboriginal Canadians will continue to increase. In this context, if Aboriginal Canadians succeed
in closing the gap with non-Aboriginal Canadians by 2017, their educational attainment would
be even higher than what is considered in our scenarios.
Yet, it is important to remember that because improvements are likely to be mostly
driven by younger Aboriginal Canadians rather than by both younger and older Aboriginal
Canadians, the aggregate increase in the educational attainment of Aboriginal Canadians will
likely not be large enough to close the 2001 gap by 2017. Moreover, any increase in educational
attainment coming from already employed Aboriginal Canadians will likely reduce cumulated
benefits over the period as these individuals may forego labour market income during the period
in which they are upgrading their educational qualifications. Finally, it is important to note that
the potential benefits of educating older Aboriginal Canadians might be overestimated since
labour market outcomes are not only a function of education, but also of experience. On the other
hand, only 31.4 per cent of the Aboriginal working age population was aged 45 or over in 2006,
compared to 47.6 per cent for the total population, a fact that suggests that most of the catch-up
could in fact be done by younger Aboriginal Canadians.
Table B: Potential Cumulative Contribution of Increases in Aboriginal Educational Attainment and
Labour Market Outcomes Over the 2001-2017 Period
|
Half the 2001 Educational Gap |
The Complete 2001 Educational | |
|
Contribution of Aboriginal Canadians |
126.3 |
161.0 |
|
Lower-Bound Contribution of Increases |
31.2 |
62.3 |
|
Upper-Bound Contribution of Increases in |
36.5 |
71.1 |
Source: Appendix Table 55 and 56