iii. An Alternative Measure of Employment Rates ..............................................................................56
G. Other Indicators of Aboriginal Well-Being .......................................................................................56
i. Poverty ............................................................................................................................................. 56
ii. Crime ..............................................................................................................................................57
iii. Health ............................................................................................................................................58
IV. General Population, Aboriginal Population and Economic Projections ............................................... 59
A. Projections for the General Population ..............................................................................................59
i. Statistics Canada .............................................................................................................................59
ii. Institute for Policy Analysis ............................................................................................................ 60
B. Projections for the Aboriginal Population .......................................................................................... 60
C. Projections for the Canadian Economy ..............................................................................................65
V. Potential Labour Market Scenarios for Aboriginal Canadians With Higher Educational Attainment .. 67
A. Potential Impact of Increased Participation of Aboriginal Canadians on the Labour Force..............67
i. National Projections ........................................................................................................................ 68
ii. Provincial Projections .................................................................................................................... 70
B. Aboriginal Canadians and Employment.............................................................................................71
C. Aboriginal Labour Market Development in Western Canada, 2001-2005.........................................73
VI. Potential Output and Productivity Scenarios When Aboriginal Canadians Attain Higher Educational
Attainment................................................................................................................................................... 75
A. Assumptions and Methodology..........................................................................................................75
B. Base Scenarios - Scenarios 1 and 2...................................................................................................79
C. Partial Catching-Up in Educational Attainment - Scenarios 3 to 6...................................................81
i. Total Effect....................................................................................................................................... 82
ii. Effect of Increased Educational Attainment ................................................................................... 82
D. Complete Catching-Up in Educational Attainment - Scenarios 7 to 10 ............................................ 83
i. Total Effect....................................................................................................................................... 83
ii. Effect of Increased Educational Attainment ................................................................................... 84
iii. Cumulated Effect Over Time ......................................................................................................... 85
E. The Case of the North American Indian Population .......................................................................... 86
i. Partial Catching-up in Educational Attainment .............................................................................. 87
ii. Complete Catching-up in Educational Attainment ......................................................................... 88
VII Policy Challenges and Strategies to Improve Educational Attainment for Aboriginal Canadians: A
Selected Literature Review ......................................................................................................................... 91
A. Implications for Government Expenditures .......................................................................................91
B. The Challenge of Attaining Educational Parity..................................................................................92
C. Strategies and Recommendations to Improve Aboriginal Labour Market Outcomes........................93
D. Aboriginal Poverty in Canada: Educational Reforms at the Band and Provincial levels ..................95
VIII Future Research and Conclusion.........................................................................................................98
References................................................................................................................................................. 100
Appendix 1................................................................................................................................................ 104