88
Again, the effect of education on output and productivity would be smaller in the context
of no improvement in neither employment rates or average employment income in a given
educational attainment group. In Scenario 3, only the education was improved. Comparing this
Scenario to the outcome of Base Scenario 1 gives a lower-bound estimate of the effect of a
partial increase in educational attainment. Total GDP is estimated to grow at a rate 0.012
percentage points higher per year and to be $3,176 million ($2001) higher in 2017 than it would
be under Base Scenario 1. Productivity is larger by $20 per worker in Scenario 3 than Base
Scenario 1, and the growth rate is 0.001 percentage points higher on average each year over the
period. This underlines the fact that education can have a much larger impact if the labour
market outcomes of North American Indians at a given level of education also improve.
ii. Complete Catching-up in Educational Attainment
This section reviews the scenarios under which the North American Indian population
achieves in 2017 the same educational profile as that of non-Aboriginal Canadians in 2001.
Comparing Scenario 10, the best case scenario from the point of view of the North American
Indian population, with Base Scenario 1, we find that the annual growth rate of output is higher
by 0.069 percentage points in Scenario 10 than in Scenario 1, with the projected level reached by
2017 $18,289 millions higher in Scenario 10 than in Base Scenario 1. Projected labour
productivity is also much larger, with an additional $356 per worker in 2017. The projected
average annual growth of labour productivity is 1.352 per cent under Scenario 10 compared to
only 1.328 under Base Scenario 1, a 0.025 percentage point increase. Scenario 10, however,
encompasses increases in all three variables.
Table 25a: Potential Incremental Contribution of North American Indians to Output, Employment
and Labour Productivity Growth in Canada Over Base Scenario, in percentage point
|
Scenario |
Additional Annual Output Growth Over Base Scenario 1 |
Additional Annual Employment Growth Over Base Scenario 1 |
Additional Annual | |
|
Base Scenarios |
1 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
2 |
_________0.040_________ |
_________0.026_________ |
_________0.013_________ | |
|
3 |
0.012 |
0.010 |
0.001 | |
|
Half the educational |
4 |
0.025 |
0.036 |
-0.011 |
|
gap is eliminated |
5 |
0.037 |
0.010 |
0.026 |
|
6 |
_________0.055_________ |
_________0.036_________ |
_________0.019_________ | |
|
7 |
0.024 |
0.021 |
0.003 | |
|
All the educational |
8 |
0.037 |
0.043 |
-0.007 |
|
gap is eliminated |
9 |
0.052 |
0.021 |
0.030 |
|
10 |
_________0.069_________ |
_________0.043_________ |
_________0.025_________ | |
Source: Table 25
In order to focus only on increases in educational attainment we compare Scenario 10 and
Base Scenario 2. The difference in growth rates between Scenarios 10 and 2 are 0.029
percentage point for output, 0.017 percentage point for employment and 0.011 percentage points