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87

i. Partial Catching-up in Educational Attainment

As was the case with the total Aboriginal population, the effect of increased educational
attainment on output, employment and productivity can be obtained under a number of different
assumptions. First, this report considers the effect of a partial elimination of the 2001 educational
attainment gap.

The average annual growth of GDP under Scenario 6 (with all three variables increasing)
over the 2001-2017 period is 0.055 percentage points higher than Base Scenario 1 (Table 25a).
In absolute terms, this represents an addition of $14.6 billion to the projected level of total GDP
in Base Scenario 1. This increase in average annual GDP growth is due both to higher growth in
employment (0.33 percentage point per year) and labour productivity (0.019 percentage point per
year). Thus, labour productivity in 2017 under Scenario 6 is $273 per worker higher in 2017
compared to Base Scenario 1.

Table 25: Summary of Projections for Income and Productivity for North American Indians, in 2017

Scenario

Increase in GDP of
the Aboriginal
Population
between 2001 and
2017 (millions of
$2001)

Average Annual
Output Growth of
Canadian GDP
(2001-2017)

Increase in
Employment of
the Aboriginal

Population
(persons, 2001-

2017)

Average Annual
Employment
Growth in Canada
(2001-2017)

Average Annual
Labour
Productivity
Growth in Canada
(2001-2017)

_ " : г

7,872

2.683

110,188

1.337

1.328

Base Scenarios

____________________2

18,397

2.723

186,290

1.363

1.341

3

11,047

2.695

140,825

1.348

1.329

Half the

14,547

2.708

214,319

1.373

1.317

educational gap

is eliminated       5

17,718

2.720

140,825

1.348

1.354

____________6_

22,480

2.738

214,319

1.373

1.347

7

14,223

2.707

171,462

1.358

1.331

All the

8

17,575

2.719

237,523

1.381

1.321

educational gap

is eliminated       9

21,678

2.735

171,462

1.358

1.358

____________________10

26,161

2.752

237,523

1.381

1.352

Source: Appendix Table 29 and Appendix Tables 40 to 49.

To isolate the effect of education alone, and to estimate what share of this potential
improvement can be attributed only to increased educational attainment, we need to compare
Scenario 6 with Base Scenario 2. Base Scenario 2 assumes improvements in employment rates
and average employment incomes, but none in educational attainment. Output growth under
Scenario 6 is 0.015 percentage points higher annually than in Base Scenario 2 and in 2017 the
level of GDP under Scenario 6 is $4,084 millions higher than under Base Scenario 2. In other
words, almost a third of the total increase in GDP can be directly attributed to improved
educational attainment. Under Scenario 6, productivity in 2017 is $82 per worker higher than
under Base Scenario 2, which translates in a growth rate 0.006 percentage points higher on
average each year over the 2001-2017.



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