84
Under the best case Scenario (10), total GDP is $1,714.0 billion ($2001) in 2017,
increasing at an average of 2.76 per cent per year over the period. Aboriginal employment is
expected to increase 272,624 over the 2001-2017 period, bringing the average annual growth rate
of employment in Canada to 1.38 per cent for the period. Labour productivity in this case is
projected to be at $92,098 per worker, an additional $542 per worker over Base Scenario 2. This
variable has an average annual growth rate of 1.37 per cent per year in this scenario.
Table 24: Estimated Effect of Education of Output and Productivity in Different Scenarios, for the Aboriginal Population
|
Aboriginal Educational |
Aboriginal Employment |
Average Aboriginal |
Effect of Education |
Effect of Education |
|
Half of the Gap Between the | ||||
|
Aboriginal and Non- |
Level of Aboriginal |
Increase with average |
0.016 |
0.003 |
|
Aboriginal Education in |
Employment Rate in 2001 |
wage growth | ||
|
2001 is Eliminated | ||||
|
Half of the Gap Between the Aboriginal and Non- |
Level of Non-Aboriginal |
Level of Non-Aboriginal Income in 2017 |
0.019 |
0.007 |
|
2001 is Eliminated | ||||
|
The Complete Gap Between | ||||
|
the Aboriginal and Non- |
Level of Aboriginal |
Increase with average |
0.032 |
0.006 |
|
Aboriginal Education in |
Employment Rate in 2001 |
wage growth | ||
|
2001 is Eliminated | ||||
|
The Complete Gap Between |
Level of Non-Aboriginal |
Level of Non-Aboriginal |
0.036 |
0.015 |
|
2001 is Eliminated |
Note: Effects of education refer to the increase in percentage points of the annual growth rates.
As in the previous sub-section, comparisons with base scenarios are particularly
interesting. The annual growth rate of output is higher by 0.081 percentage points in Scenario 10
than in Scenario 1, which translates in the 2017 level being higher by $21.5 billion (Table 24).
Productivity growth is also higher by 0.037 percentage point. This encompasses improvement in
the growth rate coming from all three sources outlined earlier.
ii. Effect of Increased Educational Attainment
This report, however, is most interested in the effect of education alone, which can be
estimated by comparing Scenario 7 with Base Scenario 1 and Scenario 10 with Base Scenario 2.
The differences in average annual growth rates between Scenario 10 and Scenario 2 are 0.036
percentage point for output, 0.20 percentage point for employment and 0.015 percentage points
for labour productivity. The absolute value of productivity in Scenario 10 is increased by $226
over Base Scenario 2. In 2017, GDP would be $9.5 billion higher under scenario 10 than under
Base Scenario 2. The effect of education on output and productivity growth represents almost
half of the total effect. Clearly, the effect of education on its own is non-negligible.
As pointed out earlier, the impact of education is slightly lower if the Aboriginal
population does not experience a concurrent improvement in its other labour market outcomes