The name is absent

81

C. Partial Catching-Up in Educational Attainment - Scenarios 3 to 6

The best scenario for Canada developed in this report is that the Aboriginal population
reaches the 2001 level of non-Aboriginals Canadians for educational attainment by 2017.
However, the case where they reach the mid-point between their actual 2001 educational
attainment and that of non-Aboriginals Canadians in 2001 by 2017 is first considered. To do so,
the share of the population in each educational group is assumed to reach the mid-point between
the non-Aboriginal share in 2001 and the Aboriginal share in 2001. For example, there were 3.72
per cent of Aboriginal Canadians with less than grade 5 in 2001, and 2.13 per cent of non-
Aboriginal Canadians. The assumption is then that by 2017, 2.93 per cent of Aboriginals will be
in this category. Another example is the 2001 share of Aboriginal Canadians with a bachelor
degree (3.43 per cent) which would increase to 7.12 per cent under this assumption by 2017
because the share of non-Aboriginal Canadians in the bachelor educational category was 10.12
per cent in 2001.

Table 23a: Potential Incremental Contribution of Aboriginal Canadians to Output, Employment
and Labour Productivity Growth in Canada Over Base Scenario, in percentage point

In Scenario 3, average employment income increases only at the average growth rate of
25.5 per cent over the 2001-2017 period while employment rates are maintained constant over
the period. Therefore, only educational attainment is changing if compared to Base Scenario 1.
Scenario 4 adds the assumption that Aboriginal employment rates reach the 2001 level of non-
Aboriginal Canadians by 2017. In Scenario 5, employment rates are kept constant, but instead
average employment income at a given level of education increases to the level of the non-
Aboriginal population. Finally, Scenario 6 estimates the additional output created if Aboriginal
Canadians increase their educational level to the mid-point between the Aboriginal and non-
Aboriginal levels in 2001 and if both Aboriginal employment rates and average employment
incomes reach parity with non-Aboriginal Canadians in 2017.

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