81
C. Partial Catching-Up in Educational Attainment - Scenarios 3 to 6
The best scenario for Canada developed in this report is that the Aboriginal population
reaches the 2001 level of non-Aboriginals Canadians for educational attainment by 2017.
However, the case where they reach the mid-point between their actual 2001 educational
attainment and that of non-Aboriginals Canadians in 2001 by 2017 is first considered. To do so,
the share of the population in each educational group is assumed to reach the mid-point between
the non-Aboriginal share in 2001 and the Aboriginal share in 2001. For example, there were 3.72
per cent of Aboriginal Canadians with less than grade 5 in 2001, and 2.13 per cent of non-
Aboriginal Canadians. The assumption is then that by 2017, 2.93 per cent of Aboriginals will be
in this category. Another example is the 2001 share of Aboriginal Canadians with a bachelor
degree (3.43 per cent) which would increase to 7.12 per cent under this assumption by 2017
because the share of non-Aboriginal Canadians in the bachelor educational category was 10.12
per cent in 2001.
Table 23a: Potential Incremental Contribution of Aboriginal Canadians to Output, Employment
and Labour Productivity Growth in Canada Over Base Scenario, in percentage point
|
Scenario |
Additional Annual Output Scenario 1 |
Additional Annual Employment Growth Over Base Scenario 1 |
Additional Annual |
|
~1 I : г |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Base Scenarios _____________________2 |
__________0.045___________ |
________0.023________ |
___________0.022_________ |
|
3 |
0.016 |
0.012 |
0.003 |
|
Half the |
0.027 |
0.033 |
-0.006 |
|
educational gap is |
0.049 |
0.012 |
0.036 |
|
______________6_ |
__________0.064__________ |
________0.033________ |
___________0.030_________ |
|
7 |
0.032 |
0.025 |
0.006 |
|
All the 8 |
0.042 |
0.043 |
-0.002 |
|
educational gap is |
0.068 |
0.025 |
0.042 |
|
____________________10 |
___________0.081___________ |
________0.043________ |
___________0.037__________ |
|
Source: Table 23 |
In Scenario 3, average employment income increases only at the average growth rate of
25.5 per cent over the 2001-2017 period while employment rates are maintained constant over
the period. Therefore, only educational attainment is changing if compared to Base Scenario 1.
Scenario 4 adds the assumption that Aboriginal employment rates reach the 2001 level of non-
Aboriginal Canadians by 2017. In Scenario 5, employment rates are kept constant, but instead
average employment income at a given level of education increases to the level of the non-
Aboriginal population. Finally, Scenario 6 estimates the additional output created if Aboriginal
Canadians increase their educational level to the mid-point between the Aboriginal and non-
Aboriginal levels in 2001 and if both Aboriginal employment rates and average employment
incomes reach parity with non-Aboriginal Canadians in 2017.