80
growth rates are 2.68 per cent for GDP, 1.34 for employment and 1.33 per cent for labour
productivity over the 2001-2017 period (Table 23).
Table 23: Summary of Projection Outcomes for Income and Productivity for Aboriginals, in 2017
|
Scenario |
Increase in GDP |
Average Annual |
Increase in 2017) |
Average Annual |
Average Annual |
|
T I ' ^ |
12,013 |
2.683 |
147,770 |
1.337 |
1.328 |
|
Base Scenarios |
, |
, | |||
|
__________________2 |
24,032 |
2.728 |
215,024 |
1.360 |
1.350 |
|
3 |
16,178 |
2.699 |
183,936 |
1.350 |
1.331 |
|
Half the |
19,207 |
2.710 |
245,360 |
1.371 |
1.321 |
|
educational gap |
, |
, | |||
|
5 is eliminated |
24,963 |
2.732 |
183,936 |
1.350 |
1.364 |
|
_____________6_ |
28,916 |
2.747 |
245,360 |
1.371 |
1.357 |
|
7 |
20,344 |
2.714 |
220,101 |
1.362 |
1.334 |
|
All the 8 |
23,032 |
2.724 |
272,624 |
1.380 |
1.326 |
|
educational gap |
, |
, | |||
|
9 is eliminated |
30,067 |
2.751 |
220,101 |
1.362 |
1.370 |
|
__________________10 |
33,542 |
2.764 |
272,624 |
1.380 |
1.365 |
|
Source: Appendix Tables 30 to 39 | |||||
One other scenario was estimated with the assumption of no increase in educational
attainment, also to be used as a benchmark. There are an increasing proportion of Aboriginals
who live off-reserve, in urban locations (Globe and Mail, July 29, 2007). This has an effect on
employment opportunities for Aboriginal Canadians. Whereas traditionally most Aboriginal
Canadians lived on reserves situated in remote locations, where employment opportunities are
limited, Aboriginal Canadians are increasingly moving to cities where they can more easily find
jobs. Moreover, the development of natural resources has the potential to increase employment
opportunities for Aboriginal Canadians who decide to remain on reserve. Base Scenario 2 takes
this effect into account, assuming that the employment rates of the Aboriginal population in each
educational attainment category will, by 2017, reach the same level as that for the non-
Aboriginal population in 2001. It also assumes that the average Aboriginal employment income
in each educational category will increase to the 2017 level of the non-Aboriginal population. In
other words, this scenario assumes that given the same educational attainment, Aboriginal and
non-Aboriginal Canadians would face the same labour market outcomes in 2017.
Under Base Scenario 2, the estimated Canadian GDP is $1,704 billion in 2017 - $12
billion over Base Scenario 1. The average annual increase of Canadian GDP is projected to reach
2.73 per cent per year over the 2001-2017 period or an additional 0.045 percentage point
annually compared to Base Scenario 1. This additional output growth is divided equally between
an increase in employment growth (0.023 percentage point annually) and labour productivity
growth (0.022 percentage point annually). In other words, Canadian labour productivity in 2017
would be $91,872 per worker, increasing at an average of 1.35 per cent per year between 2001
and 2017. This scenario represents the largest estimated potential improvements in output and
productivity if no increase in educational attainment for Aboriginal Canadians is achieved.