78
In 2001, GDP and productivity levels are based on actual values and are the same for all
scenarios. Total Canadian GDP is $1,108,048 millions (2001 dollars) and the labour productivity
is $74,136 per worker (2001 dollars). In each scenario, total GDP and labour productivity levels
in 2017, adjusted for the additional Aboriginal income, had to be approximated.
Output in 2017 had to be estimated to take into account the additional GDP created by the
Aboriginal population over the base scenario. It is assumed that Base Scenario 1 encompasses
the assumptions made by Dungan and Murphy (2007) for their projection of GDP for Canada in
2017. To calculate the total contribution of Aboriginal Canadians to GDP under each scenario,
the estimated incremental increase from each scenario is added to the Canadian GDP in the base
scenario to find total Canadian GDP given each scenario. This is done in the following way:
(1) GDP in 2017 under scenario x
= GDP in Base Scenario 1
+ (Aboriginal Income in Scenario x
- Aboriginal Income in Base Scenario 1)*2
Total employment in 2017, including the incremental contribution of Aboriginal
Canadians due to scenario-specific assumptions, is calculated in a similar way:
(2) Employment in 2017 under scenario x
= Employment in Base Scenario 1
+ (Aboriginal Employment in Scenario x
- Aboriginal Employment in Base Scenario 1)
Productivity in 2017 must also be adjusted for the additional income and employment
added by Aboriginals over the base Scenario 1. The GDP estimated with the method outlined
above was used, and was divided by the estimated employment in 2017 as calculated in (2).
GDP in 2017 under Scenario x
(3) Productivity in 2017 under Scenario x = —-—■------------■— ----------
Employment in 2017 under Scenario x
It is interesting to compare differences between specific scenarios. The effect on output
and productivity, in the scenarios of this report, come from three sources. The first source is
increased educational attainment, which is particularly interesting for the purpose of this report.
Two other sources are the increases in employment rates and the increases in average
employment incomes in given educational attainment categories. The main results are discussed
in the next three sub-sections, and summarized in Table 23, Table 23a, Table 24 and Table 24a.
The effect from education varies depending on the scenario. Obviously, the impact of
higher educational attainment for Aboriginal income will be higher when employment rates and
average employment income are higher in each educational attainment category. It is for this
reason that the report analyzes a multitude of scenarios. Comparisons between scenarios will
focus primarily on the implications for output, employment and labour productivity growth.