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• Total income of the Aboriginal population is calculated by summing up the incomes of
each educational category.
Box 1: Explanations of Different Assumptions
A number of assumptions are made about the three variables (education, income, and employment
rate) considered in our projections. This box explains all of them in detail.
Share of Aboriginal Population in Educational Attainment Groups
The Aboriginal population is separated into 14 categories according to their highest level of
educational attainment. The shares of the population in each group are assumed to take three sets of
values in 2017, namely:
• 2001 level: This assumes no change. The shares of the Aboriginal population in 2017 in each
educational category are kept at their 2001 level.
• Half of the gap eliminated: The shares of the Aboriginal population in 2017 in each
educational category are assumed to take the mid-point between the share of the Aboriginal
population in 2001 and the share of the non-Aboriginal population in 2001.
• Complete elimination of the gap: The shares of the Aboriginal population in 2017 are assumed
to take the values of the non-Aboriginal population in 2001.
Average Employment Income of the Aboriginal Population
The average employment income for the Aboriginal population in 2017 given the educational level is
assumed to take two sets of values:
• It is assumed to increase at the same rate as that of the overall workforce, which is forecast to
be 25.5 per cent over the 2001-2017 period in real terms (Dungan and Murphy, 2007).
• It is assumed to reach parity with that of the non-Aboriginal population. In this case, the
average employment income of the Aboriginal population in 2017 at a given education level
would be the same as the non-Aboriginal income in 2017. The average increase is thus 61.4
per cent, with a 25.5 per cent increase from an overall increase in real wages and a 29.9 per
cent increase due to the elimination of the 2001 employment income gap between Aboriginal
and non-Aboriginal populations at given levels of educational attainment.
Employment Rate of the Aboriginal Population
Employment rates of Aboriginal individuals are in general lower than that of the non-Aboriginal
population at a given level of education. In 2017, the rates can be assumed to take two different sets of
values:
• 2001 level: No change assumed in the education-specific Aboriginal employment rates from
the 2001 level.
• Elimination of the Aboriginal/non-Aboriginal employment rate gap: The employment rates of
the Aboriginal population in each education group are assumed to reach the level of the 2001
employment rate of the non-Aboriginal population in the same educational group.