VI. Potential Output and Productivity Scenarios When Aboriginal
Canadians Attain Higher Educational Attainment
This section will draw from the findings in the two previous sections to project the
income of the Aboriginal population to 2017 and calculate their potential contribution to output
and labour productivity growth based on different assumptions related to educational attainment.
After a short methodological review, the potential contributions are examined under different
scenarios based on three assumptions: (i) the educational level of Aboriginal Canadians remains
unchanged over the period, (ii) the educational level of Aboriginal Canadians in 2017 reaches the
mid-point between its level in 2001 and that of non-Aboriginal in 2001 and (iii) the Aboriginal
Canadians in 2017 acquire the same educational profile as that of non-Aboriginal Canadians in
2001.29 Also, the report makes different assumptions regarding the Aboriginal employment rate
and employment income in 2017 for given educational categories. Finally, the case of North
American Indians is considered, using the same methodology.
A. Assumptions and Methodology
In order to make projections of Aboriginal income and productivity to 2017, a general
methodology was developed and is outlined below.
• The Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in 2001 were divided into educational
attainment categories based on the highest level of schooling they achieved, and shares of
the population for these two populations in each educational category were calculated
(Appendix Tables 30 to 39).
• The appropriate shares (chosen according to the scenario) in each educational category
are then applied to the Aboriginal working age population in 2017 to project the absolute
number of Aboriginal Canadians of working age in each educational category in 2017.
• The working age population in each educational category is then multiplied by the
category‘s corresponding employment rate in 2017 (chosen according to the scenario) to
find the number of Aboriginal employed in each category.
• The number of Aboriginals employed is then multiplied by the average employment
income in each educational category in 2017 (once again, chosen according to the
scenario) to obtain the aggregate income for that category.
29 The report recognizes, but does not consider the fact that the non-Aboriginal population will reach a higher
education by 2017 than achieved in 2001. Therefore, to the extent that the educational attainment of Aboriginal
Canadians approach in 2017 the actual level of the non-Aboriginal population (rather than their 2001 level), this
report actually underestimates the potential educational attainment of the Aboriginal group in 2017. Another
scenario that could be investigated would be that the Aboriginal population reaches the level of education of the
non-Aboriginal population in 2017, but this would require an estimate of the level of educational attainment of the
non-Aboriginal population in 2017. Under this scenario, the potential level of educational attainment of the
Aboriginal population in 2017 would be even higher than in our most optimistic scenario, and thus their contribution
to output and productivity growth would be larger than the one forecasted in this section.