The name is absent

(industrial prices would not adjust after a shock to the system), but a joint zero restriction of
the speed of adjustment vector is rejected (χ²(3) = 9.807, p = 0.02).

The coefficients of determination are similar to those obtain by other studies ranging between
0.29 and 0.57, thus the model explains a relatively high percent of change in the
macroeconomic variables. The Jarque-Bera statistics reject the normality null at 10% for 3
equations. However, non-normality - implies that the test results must be interpreted with
care, although asymptotic results do hold for a wider class of distributions (von Cramon-
Taubadel, 1998).

Table 8. Residual serial autocorrelation LM and LB tests

^a Probabilities from chi-square with 16 df.

Multivariate LM tests for serial autocorrelation do not reject the no-autocorrelation null
hypothesis for up to the 12^th order, but the no-autocorrelation in the first 21 observations null
is rejected.

5. Conclusions

In this research, a theoretical model developed by Shagaian et al. (2002) was employed for a
small, open economy. As most post-communist economies, Hungary experienced numerous
monetary shocks during the transition period, many of them due to the less developed
monetary instruments and ad-hoc measures. Empirical evidence is presented that these shocks
quickly found their way into the agricultural sector causing significant though largely

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