Table 2 Egypt: Policy Effects on Cropping Area.
|
policy shocks |
_____Base Scenario_____ |
Water Pricing Scenario |
N-fertilizer Tax Scenario |
Pesticide Tax Scenario |
_____Energy Tax Scenario_____ |
_____Output Tax Scenario_____ |
|
Crop Items______ _ |
__________Base__________ |
Pw1_____Pw 2_____Pw3 |
10% 50% 100% |
50% 100% 200% |
50% 100% 200% |
10% 25% 50% |
|
000fed |
% Change from Base |
% Change from Base |
% Change from Base |
% Change from Base |
% Change from Base | |
|
Barley |
74.4 |
-2 -3 -4 |
- -1 -1 |
- -1 -1 |
-2 -2 -2 |
-1 - - |
|
Nili Maize |
304.8 |
-2 -9 -15 |
-1 -8 -15 |
-2 -4 -7 |
-6 -12 -24 |
- 1 1 |
|
Summer Maize |
1773.5 |
-1 -3 -8 |
- -2 -5 |
- - -1 |
-2 -3 -7 |
- - - |
|
Wheat |
2341.8 |
-1 -2 -5 |
- -2 -4 |
- -1 -2 |
-1 -2 -5 |
1 1 1 |
|
Nili Sorghum |
11.7 |
-5 -24 -46 |
-5 -19 -41 |
-5 -8 -17 |
- -2 5 |
- - - |
|
Summer Sorghum |
314.1 |
-1 -4 -9 |
- -2 -4 |
- - - |
-2 -4 -8 |
- - - |
|
Paddy Rice |
1340.3 |
-1 -4 -10 |
- -1 -2 |
- -1 -2 |
-2 -4 -8 |
-8 -21 -43 |
|
Fava bean |
333.7 |
-3 -6 -13 |
- -1 -1 |
-3 -7 -14 |
-4 -8 -16 |
2 3 3 |
|
Soy bean |
12.7 |
-4 -13 -30 |
- -5 -9 |
- - -3 |
-7 -14 -28 |
- - - |
|
Other Legume |
42.4 |
-2 -3 -8 |
- -1 - |
- - - |
-1 -1 - |
1 3 3 |
|
Long Berseem |
1939.5 |
-1 -2 -4 |
- - - |
- - - |
-1 -2 -3 |
- - - |
|
Short Berseem |
561.6 |
-1 -2 -5 |
- - - |
- - - |
-1 -2 -4 |
- - - |
|
Ground Nut |
149.9 |
-1 -1 -5 |
- -1 -2 |
- -1 -1 |
-1 -2 -4 |
- - - |
|
Lentil |
5.4 |
- 1 -5 |
1 3 7 |
- -1 -2 |
- 2 2 |
11 26 26 |
|
Sesame |
64.6 |
-2 -5 -11 |
- -2 -3 |
- - - |
-2 -3 -6 |
- - - |
|
Flax |
18.2 |
- - -1 |
- - -1 |
- - - |
- - -1 |
1 - - |
|
Cotton (G45) |
0.1 |
1 -2 -4 |
4 -1 -2 |
2 -1 -2 |
4 4 4 |
4 4 4 |
|
Cotton (G70) |
72.0 |
4 2-2 |
4 3 2 |
4 3 2 |
5 5 5 |
5 5 5 |
|
Cotton (G88) |
10.6 |
- -2 -6 |
- -1 -2 |
- -1 -2 |
1 1 1 |
1 1 1 |
|
Cotton (G80) |
80.8 |
-1 -5 -13 |
- -2 -6 |
- -1 -4 |
1 1 1 |
1 1 1 |
|
Cotton (G83) |
31.9 |
-2 -5 -11 |
- -3 -6 |
-1 -2 -4 |
- - - |
- - - |
|
Cotton (G85) |
80.9 |
- -3 -8 |
1 -1 -2 |
- -1 -3 |
1 1 1 |
1 1 1 |
|
Cotton (G86) |
113.9 |
1 -2 -5 |
2 - -2 |
1 - -2 |
3 3 3 |
3 3 3 |
|
Cotton (G89) |
128.1 |
- -2 -7 |
1 - -1 |
- - -2 |
1 2 1 |
2 1 1 |
|
Sugar Beet |
142.6 |
-6 -19 -43 |
-5 -26 -51 |
-24 -47 -93 |
-13 -26 -52 |
1 - - |
|
Sugar Cane |
306.4 |
-3 -10 -25 |
-1 -6 -13 |
- - -1 |
-4 -8 -16 |
-16 -40 -85 |
|
Citrus* |
907.0 |
- - - |
- - - |
a a a |
a a a |
- - - |
|
Summer Onion |
13.9 |
1 - -2 |
2 - -1 |
1 -1 -4 |
2 1 - |
2 2 2 |
|
Winter Onion |
54.0 |
1 - -3 |
2 - -2 |
1 - -3 |
2 1 - |
2 2 2 |
|
Nili Potato |
47.3 |
- -1 -1 |
- -2 -4 |
-1 -1 -3 |
-1 -1 -2 |
- - - |
|
Summer Potato |
62.5 |
- -1 -3 |
- -1 -3 |
-2 -3 -6 |
- -1 -2 |
- - - |
|
Nili Tomato |
67.1 |
- -1 -1 |
- -1 -2 |
-1 -3 -6 |
-1 -2 -3 |
- - - |
|
Summer Tomato |
200.9 |
-1 -2 -6 |
- -2 -5 |
-2 -5 -10 |
-1 -3 -6 |
- - - |
|
Winter Tomato |
157.8 |
- - 1 |
- -2 -4 |
-2 -3 -7 |
-1 -1 -2 |
- 1 1 |
|
Nili Vegetable |
153.7 |
- -1 -1 |
- -1 -2 |
-1 -2 -5 |
-1 -2 -4 |
- - - |
|
Summer Vegetable |
463.1 |
- -1 -3 |
- -1 -2 |
-1 -2 -4 |
-1 -1 -2 |
- - - |
|
Winter Vegetable_________ |
__________427.9__________ |
- - - |
- - - |
-_____________-1_____________-2 |
- - - |
- - - |
|
Total Land of Cultivation |
_________12810.9_________ |
-1 -3 -7 |
-0.1 -2 -3 |
-0.6 -1.4 -3.0 |
-1.4 -2.8 -5.8 |
-0.8 -2.7 -6.0 |
* Citrus cultivation is fixed in the model because most of the Egyptian fruit trees are perennials.
28