The name is absent



H. Mori et al. /International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 3 (2000) 189-205

203


Table 5

Elasticity estimates of demand for fresh fruit: (A) period effects derived from cohort analysis and (B) simple
per capita consumption derived from dividing household consumption by household members, 1979 to 1997

(1) Fresh fruits

(A) Dependent variables 5
period effects 1 grand mean

(B) Dependent variables 5
simple per capita quantities

Parameter            Standard

estimate                error

Parameter
estimate

Standard
error

Intercept

0.55                 2.86

13.40

2.18

Living Expenses

0.38                 0.25

20.59

0.19

Price

20.47                 0.13

20.38

0.10

Adj R2

0.63

0.94

D-W

1.69

1.38

ally, fresh fruit has been consumed in greater amounts by those with higher incomes in any
year of the period under consideration (Mori & Inaba, 1997). This prior evidence supports
the results of our cohort analysis.

5. Implications and conclusions

Cohort analysis can be useful in marketing and forecasting and should provide more
reliable long-run data to demand analysis where conspicuous effects of age in a broader sense
and/or age and cohort are observed. It becomes possible to more accurately target specific
age groups and/or cohort groups. This could serve to outline future opportunities as well as
warn against adverse future trends in consumption. Once future demand is predicted,
short-term and long-term marketing plans can be implemented to take advantage of cohort
trends or to possibly shift future cohort trends. This can be done accurately only if age and
cohort effects are carefully determined independently from each other.

Notes

1. The rate of eating out for supper was 12.2 and 10.5% for the 40-49 and 50-59
year-old groups, respectively, in 1993, whereas that for the 20-24, 25-29 and 30-39
year-old groups, respectively, was 20.7, 18.4 and 13.6% in the same year (Nutrition
Survey).

References

Attanasio, O. P. (1997). Cohort analysis of saving behavior by U.S. households. The Journal of Human
Resources, XXXIII (3), 575- 609.

Dyck, J. (1988). Demand for meats in Japan: a review and an update of elasticity estimates. USDA, ERS, Staff
Report AGES 880525.



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