Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis

Table 6: The role of external borrowing from Europe
	Indo	Mal	Phil	Kor	Thai
crisis(1.5 std)	-0.05;-0.07	-0.05;-0.05	-0.05;-0.05	-0.05;-0.07	-0.05;-0.07
crisis (2 std)	-0.05;-0.07	-0.05;-0.05	-0.05;-0.05	-0.05;-0.05	-0.05;-0.05

Note: see Note to Table 3. The principal components have been extracted from a dataset without the
ratio of external borrowing from Europe to the stock of international reserves in each country

Table 7: The role of external borrowing from the US
	Indo	Mal	Phil	Kor	Thai
crisis(1.5 std)	0.44;0.44	0.89;0.54	-0.05;-0.05	0.44;0.44	0.44;0.44
crisis (2 std)	0.50;0.68	-0.10;-0.07	-0.05;-0.05	0.94;0.68	0.94;0.68

Note: see Note to Table 3. The principal components have been extracted from a dataset without the
ratio of external borrowing from the US to the stock of international reserves in each country

Table 8: The role of external borrowing from Japan
	Indo	Mal	Phil	Kor	Thai
crisis(1.5 std)	0.44;0.44	0.89;0.54	-0.05;-0.05	0.44;0.44	0.44;0.44
crisis (2 std)	0.50;0.68	0.89;0.54	-0.05;-0.05	-0.05;-0.05	0.94;0.68

Note: see Note to Table 3. The principal components have been extracted from a dataset without the
ratio of external borrowing from Japan to the stock of international reserves in each country

_________________________Table 9: The role of M₂_________________________
	Indo	Mal	Phil	Kor	Thai
crisis(1.5 std)	-0.05;-0.07	-0.05;-0.05	-0.05;-0.05	0.44;0.44	0.44;0.44
crisis (2 std)	-0.05;-0.07	-0.05;-0.05	-0.05;-0.05	0.94;0.68	0.94;0.68

Note: see Note to Table 3. The principal components have been extracted from a dataset without the
external borrowing from the M₂ ratio to the stock of international reserves in each country

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