in which the Clinton administration has been quite generous in offering waivers to
state governments, to experiment with welfare reform. In all, 43 waivers for welfare
and a dozen for Medicaid have been granted. (Parenthetically, during the Bush and
Reagan years, far fewer waivers were approved, despite heavy Republican rhetoric
about the welfare waste and abuse.)
Another key area in which the Clinton administration has taken the lead in
devolving power to the states is job training assistance. President Clinton, together
with Republican Sen. Nancy Kassebaum of Kansas, has proposed an ambitious
overhaul of the nation’s job training programs. Their plan would consolidate more
than IOOjob training programs into one block grant, offering states enormous flexibility
in fashioning job-assistance programs for unemployed workers. As Congress rushes
toward adjournment this month [October 1996], this initiative may fall short.
Nonetheless, the groundwork has been laid, and passage of this far-reaching revamp
ofjobless programs will certainly be a high priority in a second Clinton term.
Worth mentioning at this point is the political balance of power in Congress.
Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both houses of Congress. The odds
favor the Republicans to retain control of Congress after the November elections,
albeit by smaller margins. If Democrats regain the majority, it will be a razor-thin
victory.
Here is why: Twenty-eight Democrats arc leaving the House OfRepresentatives
by retiring or seeking higher office. Twenty-one Republicans are in the same category'.
With few exceptions, the Republican vacancies will be filled by another Republican.
More than half of the Democratic vacancies are vulnerable, however, to loss to the
Republican party. That means Democrats will have to defeat roughly 30 Republican
incumbents in order to return to the majority—an unlikely scenario.
In the Senate, open seats offer few opportunities for Democratic gains. It also
appears more Democratic incumbents are in competitive reelection races than are
Republicans.
Quite simply, Democrats who are favoring increased federal involvement in
domestic affairs will not constitute a working majority in the coming Congress. Even
if Clinton were inclined toward a more activist federal government.. .while faced with
a Congress almost evenly divided between the parties, he will have little choice but
to continue down a path of fiscal austerity and devolution.
Given these developments at the federal level, there should be no doubt that
“the era of big government is over!”
The surprising news is, state and local governments appear ready for devolution.
In many ways, they are ahead of the federal government in this regard. Voters
increasingly have turned to a new generation of leaders or another political party to
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