Long-Term Capital Movements



31

Table 1. Kao (1999) and Pedroni (1999) cointegration tests

(2)

■ 3 .

4-^-

Industrial
1970-98

Industrial
1980-98

Developing
1970-98

Developing
1980-98

Kao (1999) DF ρ* test

10.89
(0.00)

10.42
(0.00)

-15.65
(0.00)

11.62
(0.000)

Kao (1999) ADF stat, 1 lag

-4.24

(0.00)

-4.48

(0.00)

-4.73

(0.00)

-4.17

(0.00)

Kao (1999)ADF stat, 2 lags

-4.36

(0.00)

-4.52

(0.00)

-4.29

(0.00)

-4.61

(0.00)

Pedroni (1999) t stat for ρ nt

-333.6
(0.00)

-237.1
(0.00)

-472.4
(0.00)

-315.2
(0.00)

Note: cointegration tests are performed on the vector including NFA, log GDP per capita, public debt and the
three composite demographic variables. The table reports the value of the statistic, with p-values in parenthesis.
The null hypothesis in all tests is lack of cointegration. DF (ADF) stands for (augmented) Dickey-Fuller.



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