Long-Term Capital Movements



34

Table 4. Net foreign assets: cross-sectional regressions

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

CUMCA

CUMCA+IIP CUMCA

CUMCA

CUMFL

CUMFL

1990-98

1990-98

1990-98

1990-98

1990-98

1990-98

Industrial

Industrial

Dev_____

Dev, no Sing Dev, no

Sing Dev, no Sing

Log GDP per capita

0.45

(3.58)**

0.54

(2.92)**

0.18

(2.32)**

0.17

(2.0)**

0.15

(1.6)

-1.87

(2.93)**

Log GDP per capita
squared

0.13

(3.26)**

Public Debt

0.10

-0.11

-0.44

-0.45

-0.65

-0.71

(0.7)

(0.35)

(4.52)**

(4.47)**

(5.18)**

(6.55)**

χ2 (Demog.)

3.05

2.21

35.3

33.6

36.7

1.35

(0.38)

(0.53)

(0.00)**

(0.00)**

(0.00)**

(0.28)

Adjusted R2

0.45

0.33

0.62

0.57

0.63

0.69

Countries

22

22

39

38

38

38

α (POP<15)

-1.2

394.2

-489.2

-442.3

-276.9

-2.25

α (POP>64)

-0.44

-1314.6

1527.8

1389.0

921.8

-0.04

α max

0.62

424.3

1527.8

1389.0

921.8

1.24

(30-34)

(15-19)

(65+)

(65+)

(65+)

(50-54)

α min

-1.2

-1314.6

-511.9

-464.0

-298.1

-2.25

(0-14)
_

(65+)
_

(20-24)

(20-24)

(35-39)
_

(0.14)
_

* Ordinary least squares, heteroskedasticity-corrected !-statistics in parentheses (р-value for the χ2
(Demog.) statistic). * (**) indicates statistical significance at the 5% (1%) confidence level. In regressions
(1) the dependent variable is
CUMCA for all countries except Belgium, for which it is the IIP estimate of
net foreign assets minus gold. In regression (2) the dependent variable is the IIP estimate of NFA for
Austria, Belgium, Canada, Finland, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,
United Kingdom and United States and
CUMCA for the remaining countries. Regressions (3)-(6) refer to
the developing country sample, In regressions (3) and (4), the dependent variable is
CUMCA, in regression
(5) it is
CUMFL. Regressions (4)-(5) exclude Singapore.



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