Long-Term Capital Movements



33

Table 3. Determinants of net foreign assets, developing countries
Panel DOLS regressions with fixed time and country effects

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

CUMCA
1970-98
All

CUMCA
1980-98
All

CUMCA
1970-98
No Sing.

CUMCA
1980-98
No Sing.

CUMFL
1970-98
No Sing.

CUMFL
1980-98
No Sing.

CUMCA
1977-97
Balanced

Log GDP per capita

-0.21

(4.59)**

-0.08

(1.05)

-0.29

(6.76)**

-0.2

(2.98)**

-0.31

(6.8)**

-0.25

(3.6)**

-0.26

(3.55)**

Public Debt

-0.67

(14.03)**

-0.67

(13.3)**

-0.73

(16.8)**

-0.71

(14.6)**

-0.86

(21.4)**

-0.86

(19.6)**

-0.50

(8.87)**

χ2 (Demog.)

28.7
(0.00)**

21.2
(0.00)**

5.5
(.14)

4.6
(.20)

12.7
(.01)**

6.4
(.10)

38.7
(0.00)**

Adjusted R2

0.83

0.87

0.85

0.88

0.89

0.91

0.89

Observations

779

590

753

572

728

566

416

Countries

39

39

38

38

38

38

16

α (POP<15)

-1.01

-0.38

-0.49

-0.78

-0.9

-1.11

-1.17

α (POP>64)

-0.522

0.158

2.05

2.47

4.33

4.6

0.55

α max

3.92
(50-54)

3.54
(55-59)

2.05
(65+)

2.47
(65+)

4.33
(65+)

4.6
(65+)

5.66
(55-59)

α min
_

-3.92

(20-24)

-3.54

(20-24)

-1.19

(25-29)

-1.1

(20-24)

-1.18

(45-49)

-1.14

(35-39)

-5.67

(20-24)

*Dynamic ordinary least squares, !-statistics in parentheses (р-value for the χ2 (Demog.) statistic). * (**)
indicates statistical significance at the 5% (1%) confidence level. In regressions (1)-(4) the dependent
variable is CUMCA, in regressions (5) and (6) it is CUMFL. Regressions (3)-(6) exclude Singapore from
the sample.



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