Long-Term Capital Movements



35

Table 5. Changes in net foreign assets: speed of adjustment
Panel regressions, error-correction specification

A. Industrial countries*

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

CUMCA

CUMCA

CUMCA+IIP

CUMCA+IIP

1970-98

1980-98

1970-98

1980-98

Error Correct.

-0.11

-0.17

-0.12

-0.14

(4.11)**

(4.59)**

(4.23)**

(3.34)**

Adjusted R2

0.28

0.30

0.27

0.13

Observations

539

393

537

374

Countries_______

22_________

22_________

22___________

22__________

* Ordinary least squares, t-statistics in parentheses (р-value for the χ2 (Demog.) statistic). * (**) indicates
statistical significance at the 5% (1%) confidence level. Regressions also include the lagged first difference in
CUMCA, contemporaneous first differences in the other variables belonging to the Z vector and country and
time dummies. In regressions (1) and (2) the dependent variable is the change in
CUMCA for all countries
except Belgium, for which it is the change in the IIP estimate of net foreign assets minus gold. In regression (3)
the dependent variable is the change in the IIP estimate of NFA for Belgium, Canada, Italy, Japan and United
Kingdom, and the change in
CUMCA for all other countries. In regression (4) it is the change in the IIP
estimate of NFA for Austria, Belgium, Canada, Finland, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States and the change in
CUMCA for the remaining countries.

B. Developing countries**

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

CUMCA

CUMCA

CUMCA

CUMCA

CUMFL

CUMFL

All

All

No Sing

No Sing

No Sing

No Sing

1970-98

1980-98

1970-98

1980-98

1970-98

1980-98

Error Correct.

-0.06

-0.11

-0.10

-0.16

-0.10

-0.15

(2.36)*

(2.96)**

(4.99)**

(5.05)**

(4.53)**

(4.66)**

Adjusted R2

0.44

0.45

0.48

0.50

0.54

0.56

Observations

849

612

822

594

786

585

Countries______

39_______

39_______

38_______

38_______

38

38_______

** Ordinary least squares, t-statistics in parentheses (p-value for the χ2 (Demog.) statistic). * (**) indicates
statistical significance at the 5% (1%) confidence level. In regressions (1)-(4) the dependent variable is the
change in
CUMCA, in regressions (5)-(6) it is the change in CUMFL. Regressions also include the lagged first
difference in the dependent variable, contemporaneous first differences in the other variables belonging to the
Z
vector and country and time dummies. Regressions (3)-(6) exclude Singapore from the sample.



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