Ex post analysis of the regional impacts of major infrastructure: the Channel Tunnel 10 years on.



million vehicles. The data show that the Tunnel gained a significant share (19%) of
this market with the Dover Straits ferries taking a further 40%. Value data would
show an even greater concentration on these routes given the time sensitivity and
security characteristics of such traffic. Goods vehicle flows are shown in Figure 7.

Cross-Channel rail freight has not followed the same pattern and has failed to meet
prior expectations. As shown in Figure 8, tonnages carried by train have decreased
from a peak of 3.1 million tonnes in 1998, itself barely half of the original forecast for
the tunnel’s opening to under 1.5 million tonnes by 2002. This failure to meet
expected levels of traffic results in part from the problems encountered by the train
operators with security at the freight terminals in Europe (especially Fréthun) and the
penalties they incurred if they inadvertently carried illegal immigrants, but it also
reflects the general failure of Europe’s railways to respond to market pressures to
improve service and provide genuine inter-operability in order to compete with road
haulage.

—■—Tunnel Rail Freight
Tonnage

Figure 8: Cross Channel Rail Freight Tonnage (1995 - 2002)

Sources: KCC Tables from: Dover Harbour Board, Eurotunnel, Cruise and Ferry
Info, Hoverspeed, Port Ramsgate

It was anticipated that the opening of the Channel Tunnel would result in additional
traffic on Kent roads. It was therefore decided at an early stage to undertake certain
road improvement schemes to cater for this additional traffic. The opening of the
Channel Tunnel was also expected to divert both freight and passenger vehicles
through the Cheriton Terminal, although the creation of through passenger and freight
rail services should provide some relief. Traffic data shows increases in traffic on the
approach roads to the tunnel (and Dover) although not out of proportion with the
general increases in traffic on major routes in Kent. The failure of rail to take its
predicted share of traffic has clearly had an impact on road traffic levels, but it is
difficult to assess by how much as international traffic remains a relatively small part
(perhaps 10-12%) of total road traffic on the major routes.

The impacts of this traffic on transport sector employment have been ambiguous. It
was expected that there would be a large reduction in ferry and port related
employment which would only be partly compensated by tunnel employment. Te

13



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