4.2 Transport sector impacts
Cross-Channel traffic has been growing rapidly over a long period before the
construction of the Channel Tunnel. In the period immediately prior to the Tunnel’s
opening, following a slight fall in numbers from 1986 to 1988 associated with strikes
there was an increase in passenger numbers of 55% between 1988 and 1994. This
increase continued after the Tunnel’s opening as part of a general increase in travel
between the UK and continental Europe. UK residents make up approximately 80% of
cross-Channel travellers and the market for passenger travel to continental Europe
from the UK increased by over 61% between 1993 and 2002, and that to Near Europe
(the major market within which the Tunnel competes) by over 43%. Figure 4 shows
data for total passenger traffic through the tunnel and via the ferries for the period
since 1995, the first full year of Tunnel operation. .
P Ports
—*— Shuttles
A Eurostar
■ Totals
Figure 4: Cross Channel Passenger Traffic 1995-2002
Sources: KCC Tables from: Dover Harbour Board, Eurotunnel, Cruise and Ferry
Info, Hoverspeed, Port Ramsgate..
The opening of The Channel Tunnel and the establishment and success of low cost
airlines in the UK has led to increased competition for cross-channel travel. It might
be expected that this would result in a change in the relative market shares of
operators of the various modes of transport including air, sea and tunnel. To estimate
the share of the cross-Channel market held by Eurotunnel we have used data from the
International Passenger Survey, which provides passenger numbers by UK Port of
origin and country of destination. This data can be used to examine how the
passenger numbers as a share of the total market have changed over time. The data
presented here does not identify traffic by through Eurostar trains separately. Here
original forecast of between 13 and 16 million passengers per year have been seen to
be wildly ambitious, Eurostar has managed barely 6 million passengers per year,
although there has been a significant upturn in traffic following the opening of the
first stage of the UK high-speed line in 2003 which improved reliability.
The ex-ante predicted market share of the Tunnel was estimated at 25 - 35% of the
market for passenger travel to the Continent. Figure 5 shows the percentage shares of
the main Passenger Ports (Ferries, Tunnel and Airports) in London and South East
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