Ex post analysis of the regional impacts of major infrastructure: the Channel Tunnel 10 years on.



Later revisions reduced some of these rather optimistic figures. For example,
projected new tourism related employment was reduced from in the range 2,000 to
3,000 to around 500 new jobs after taking account of displacements and relocations of
accommodation as well as visitors diverted away from Kent to France for short
breaks. Similarly the initial predictions of up to 5000 new jobs in Kent by 1996 due to
infrastructure improvements were later revised to a figure of around 2750.

4. Assessing the Impact of the Tunnel

4.1 Construction Impact

The construction impact needs to take account of both the construction of the Channel
Tunnel itself, its immediate ancillary activities and the associated developments of
roads, railways etc. Despite its size the construction of the Channel Tunnel was short
term and localised, while the associated developments are less localised and spread
over a longer time period with the high-speed rail link not due for completion until
2007. Major construction projects, even if geographically specific involve many firms
which are national or international contractors and sub-contractors, who will have
recruited at least some of their labour force (especially the most specialised) from
outside the region (transient employment effect). It is therefore feasible to say that
there are very few, if any, long term
induced effects of the construction associated
with the Tunnel.

The employment impact of tunnel construction peaked in 1990, though with a much
larger labour force than originally anticipated (8,300 plus 1,827 people employed by
sub-contractors), only some 35% of whom were from within Kent in 1990. The
impact of the tunnel and then of later construction on the CTRL high-speed rail line
can be seen in Figure 3

For Kent as a whole there was a fall in construction employment of 23% from 1991 to
1995 in Kent, followed by subsequent growth of 29% between 1995 - 1998 and 12%
1998 - 2001. The 2001 figure was 12% higher than in 1991.

—*—Ashford

— D — Dover

—■— Maidstone

S Shepway

Figure 3: Construction Employment in the Channel Corridor (1991 - 2001)



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