Estimating the Impact of Medication on Diabetics' Diet and Lifestyle Choices

intake of starches, milk, meat, fat, and sugar, estimated coefficients on medication variables
appear to be an order of magnitude larger than diabetic variables. That is, medication is
consistent with a considerable loss of restraint in making dietary choices.

Conclusion

The policy question raised by this analysis depends on whether diabetics’ perceived health
production functions are correct. One possibility is that diabetics have generally overassessed
the productivity of medicine, guessing that medicine adds so much to their health stock that they
are healthier than non-diabetics. As long as they do not recognize the mistake, their utility
maximizing choices could be to diets and lifestyles that are even worse (for health) than the diets
and lifestyles they chose before discovering their compromised health condition. In that case,
the public health community could consider focusing attention on accurately portraying the
health benefits of medication.

Of course, the continued development of new and superior medications could alter the situation.
Overassessments could decline if diabetics adopted better drugs without revising their perceived
health production functions. However, the more likely scenario is that better drugs would be
perceived as better, leading to upward revisions in perceived health production functions. Thus,
the magnitude of overconfidence might not be reduced; the more-than-offsetting behavior could
continue, albeit with ambiguous health implications.

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