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Theoretically, all crop farmers in the country are surveyed under this system. However, as
far as can be discerned, no quality control efforts are conducted in the field during the exercise,
raising doubts whether full coverage is actually attained. Some data users suspect that camp-level
figures may be changed for political reasons.4 .` Finally, all tabulations of the data at the ward and DAO
levels are done manually. Reports of undetected errors finding their way into final publications are
common.
While the published MAFF data may be subject to considerable error, the exercise is valuable
in providing timely estimates of annual crop production and early warnings of unusual production
patterns. Since the summaries are subject to review and possible manipulation at several administrative
levels, the potential for politically motivated self-serving adjustments should be recognized by
individuals who wish to use the data as a time series.
B. Central Statistics Office agricultural data series
There are three data series emanating from the CSO. They are the commercial farms, the
noncommercial farms, and the crop forecast data. The latter two data series are derived from the same
sample agricultural survey. The agricultural statistics publications printed by the CSO can be found
in the references.
1. Commercial farms data
Data on commercial farms are collected by the CSO annually via a questionnaire mailed to
all known "commercial" farmers. During the early years of the survey the mailing list of commercial
farms was based on a membership list obtained from the Commercial Farmers Union. However, this
practice was discontinued when it was discovered that many union members were not farmers but had
joined to obtain certain products at a preferential price. As a result, by 1969/70, the CSO had
redefined a commercial farmer in terms of agricultural activity.
Definition of a commercial farmer, 1969/70
(1) A farmer who sold maize worth K600 or more at the line of rail prices;
(2) a farmer who grew Virginia or burley tobacco in his/her own name and was registered
with the Tobacco Board;
(3) a farmer who sold dairy products to and was registered with the Dairy Produce Board; or
(4) a farmer who had title to land.
In the mid-1970s, the definition of a commercial farmer was expanded to include the widening variety
of specialized agricultural producers. By 1975/76, when the currently available data series begins, a
commercial farmer was defined as one who satisfied any of the following criteria:
Definition of a commercial farmer, 1975/76
(1) Any farmer who sold during the previous 12 months to NAMBoard or any other
cooperative union any crops the value of which was equivalent to 150 bags (90
kilograms) of maize or more at the ruling producer price;
° For example, a ward supervisor might revise maize production estimates upward to show an increase from the previous
year or to compare more favorably with an adjoining ward.