13
frontier. The data in chapter 7, showing stagnant area growth, do not refute this hypothesis,
but likewise do not support it.
► A rapid rate of growth in area would raise important questions about: the sustained
preservation of land reserves for forests, parks, and wildlife; and environmental concerns of
deforestation and declines in soil and water quality, particularly in situations of land scarcity.
The data in chapter 7 do not indicate an immediate cause for concern, although the issue may
be important.
► Declining productivity measured by falling yields per hectare over time provides a weak
indication that soil mining is occurring, and/or that addition of soil supplements and
technology growth are not sufficient to offset the natural decline in soil fertility arising from
cultivation. The data in table 1.7 and chapter 7 would weakly support both hypotheses, though
again statistical inferences are difficult due to wide fluctuations in the data.
Table 1.8: Crop area, commercial and noncommercial farms
1986—1987
1990—1991
Non-CF |
CF |
Non-CF |
CF (000 ha) | |
Maize (including seed) |
699 |
78 |
535 |
44 |
Millet |
70 |
0 |
88 |
0 |
Sorghum |
63 |
0 |
44 |
0 |
Rice |
22 |
0 |
11 |
0 |
Wheat |
10 |
8 |
na |
na |
Groundnut |
107 |
na |
125 |
3 |
Sunflower |
48 |
5 |
32 |
5 |
Soybeans |
27 |
14 |
15 |
38 |
Mixed beans |
35 |
na |
53 |
1 |
Cotton |
33 |
1 |
na |
na |
Tobacco |
8 |
7 |
na |
na |
Coffee |
1 |
3 |
na |
na |
Sugarcane |
3 |
11 |
na |
na |
Fruits |
3 |
5 |
na |
na |
Other crops |
88 |
2 |
na |
na |
Mixed crops |
137 |
0 |
na |
0 |
Total |
1,354 |
134 |
na |
91 |
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries, "Assessment of Potential Land For Expanding Agricultural
Production in Zambia" (1993), p. 3.
At a more fundamental level, there is an urgent need for ground truthing of aggregate data
time series through field-level research and data collection. There is a dearth of information on many
basic questions. Is the customary land tenure system facilitating or constraining agricultural
development? How are customary systems and statutory tenure curtailing or facilitating the agrarian