The name is absent

13

frontier. The data in chapter 7, showing stagnant area growth, do not refute this hypothesis,
but likewise do not support it.

► A rapid rate of growth in area would raise important questions about: the sustained
preservation of land reserves for forests, parks, and wildlife; and environmental concerns of
deforestation and declines in soil and water quality, particularly in situations of land scarcity.
The data in chapter 7 do not indicate an immediate cause for concern, although the issue may
be important.

► Declining productivity measured by falling yields per hectare over time provides a weak
indication that soil mining is occurring, and/or that addition of soil supplements and
technology growth are not sufficient to offset the natural decline in soil fertility arising from
cultivation. The data in table 1.7 and chapter 7 would weakly support both hypotheses, though
again statistical inferences are difficult due to wide fluctuations in the data.

Table 1.8: Crop area, commercial and noncommercial farms

1986—1987

1990—1991

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries, "Assessment of Potential Land For Expanding Agricultural
Production in Zambia" (1993), p. 3.

At a more fundamental level, there is an urgent need for ground truthing of aggregate data
time series through field-level research and data collection. There is a dearth of information on many
basic questions. Is the customary land tenure system facilitating or constraining agricultural
development? How are customary systems and statutory tenure curtailing or facilitating the agrarian

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