The name is absent

12

production figures for the noncommercial sector are extremely limited. Production data were located
for the period 1972 to 1986 after which date publication ceased; area estimates were published

Table 1.7: Rates of growth in crop production, 1974-1990

a. The growth rate for wheat would appear to be incorrect as the estimated growth rate in yield plus the
estimated growth rate in area should more or less equal the estimated growth rate in production.

Source: World Bank, "Draft Economic Report for Zambia CG Meeting" (1993), p. 39.

only for the period 1983 to 1986. Based on these data, maize production in the noncommercial sector
grew at an average annual rate of 1 to 7 percent annually over the period 1972 to 1986, depending
on the region examined. Both sets of data for the commercial and noncommercial sectors are
consistent with statistics reported by the US Department of Agriculture which suggest a growth rate
in cereals production in Zambia of roughly 1.1 percent annually over the period 1961 to 1989. These
results suggest profound disparities between the World Bank analysis and the empirical analysis in
chapter 7. Differences stem partially from the World Bank analysis beginning with the year 1974, a
momentary trough in output, and their use of forecast (not actual harvested) data. Overall, the analysis
in this paper suggests a far more modest rate of agrarian expansion, though the highly volatile nature
of both forecast and Central Statistics Office (CSO) survey data cannot be overemphasized.

Rates of growth in area, production, and yields have important implications for the
sustainability of resource management in arable areas and the conservation of natural resources in
protected areas:

► A high rate of growth in area combined with stagnant yields would suggest that the greatest
output gains in the short to intermediate term (10-15 years) would be expected from crop area
expansion, particularly if an enabling land tenure environment is present. Data in table 1.7
would suggest this conclusion, while independent estimates in chapter 7 would suggest far
more cautious estimates of expansion growth. Further the data in table 1.7 would suggest a
conducive environment for land tenure and an ease in opening or expanding the agricultural

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