The results are reported in Table 5. The incumbent effect, the net entry effect and the
turnover effect correspond to the three right-hand side terms on the second line of equation (A1)
in the appendix, and they sum to nominal export growth.
TABLE 5
Nominal Export Growth Decomposition (Gabon)
|
Period |
Nominal |
Incumbent |
Net Entry |
Turnover |
|
1993-96 |
115,18% |
115,43% |
-0,237% |
-0,0153% |
Virtually all export growth is attributable to the incumbents, i.e. to the growth in exports of
firms which were already exporters in 1993. The net entry effect is negative, because exiting
firms exported more than entering firms. However, their average size was only 2.37% of the
average size of incumbent firms, and hence the contribution of the net entry effect is practically
nil. Similarly, the turnover effect accounts for less than 1% of nominal export growth even though
the turnover rate is 25%, as the size difference between entering and exiting firms is negligible.
Thus, turnover in the export market is only attributable to small firms, all of similar size.
The export decomposition analysis confirms the previous findings of a study on
Cameroon, using the same methodology (Tybout, Gauthier, Barba Navaretti and de Melo, 1997).
In Cameroon, as in Chad and Gabon, all nominal export growth was due to incumbents in the
export market, and the CFA devaluation failed to generate entry into foreign markets by new
exporters.
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