6.
Concluding Remarks
Overall, the main results of the study can be summarised as follows. First, the reforms
were successful in changing the incentive structure facing producers. Changes in the real prices
of intermediate inputs and of labour have favoured export-oriented firms and penalized firms that
cater mainly to the domestic markets and rely heavily on imported inputs.
Second, firms’ response to changing incentives has been non-negligible. Our findings
show that output shifted toward the exportable sector. Moreover, we also find evidence of
substantial productivity gains during the period.
Third, and on a less optimistic note, the reform process was unable to generate a
virtuous and self-sustained circle. Regarding exporting firms, we could not find any indications of
a positive link between export orientation and productivity growth. It is not the case therefore that
by increasing exports and being subject to stronger competitive pressures, firms became more
efficient and were thus able to further increase their exports. Our results show that productivity
growth is mainly a function of output growth rather than export orientation. Productivity growth
increased more among exporters simply because they were subject to a positive price shock
and were thus able to grow more rapidly.
Turning to non-exporting firms, devaluation did not come as a blessing. Input costs
increased markedly, particularly for firms that rely mostly on imported inputs. Output growth was
often negative and led the size of many of these firms to contract in absolute terms. Given that
smaller firms may find more difficult to sustain the fixed costs necessary to penetrate into foreign
markets, it follows that size will be generally associated with greater export orientation and larger
firms will be more prone to cater to foreign markets. To the extent therefore that devaluation and
the reform process were associated with a negative price shock and output contraction for non-
exporting firms, this may make it harder for these firms face to shift toward export markets.
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