The name is absent



Table 3

Forecast accuracy of alternative Phillips curves, USA, 1978:1 — 2006:4

h________

_____________x = GDP_____________

x = unemployment rate

sMed

sDf

sMom

sWMed

s 20

sM.

sDf

sMom

sWMed

s 20

1 RMSFE

0.91

0.92

1.08

0.93

0.94

0.92

0.93

1.11

0.94

0.96

DM

-1.80**

-1.53*

1.17

-1.17

-1.28

-1.55*

-1.30*

1.66**

-0.99

-0.88

MDM

-1.79**

-1.52*

1.16

-1.16

-1.27

-1.54*

-1.29

1.65*

-0.98

-0.87

2 RMSFE

0.87

0.86

1.18

0.92

0.85

0.85

0.85

1.18

0.91

0.84

DM

-1.47*

-1.51*

2.17**

-1.24

-1.51*

-1.74**

-1.78**

2.39***

-1.18

-1.73**

MDM

-1.44*

-1.48*

2.13**

-1.22

-1.48*

-1.71**

-1.75**

2.35**

-1.16

-1.70**

3 RMSFE

0.85

0.85

1.16

0.93

0.84

0.83

0.83

1.15

0.91

0.85

DM

-1.67**

-1.69**

2.56***

-1.09

-1.82**

-1.99**

-1.98**

2.47***

-1.37*

-2.31**

MDM

-1.62*

-1.64*

2.49***

-1.06

-1.77**

-1.93**

-1.92**

2.40***

-1.33*

-2.24**

4 RMSFE

0.83

0.84

1.18

0.86

0.82

0.86

0.86

1.24

0.89

0.85

DM

-2.01**

-2.07**

3.35***

-1.67**

-2.02**

-1.61*

-1.66**

2.95***

-1.35*

-1.62*

MDM

-1.93**

-1.98**

3.21***

-1.60*

-1.94**

-1.54*

-1.59*

2.83***

-1.29

-1.55*

5 RMSFE

0.82

0.82

1.18

0.82

0.78

0.81

0.81

1.19

0.81

0.77

DM

-1.99**

-2.25**

2.63***

-2.02**

-2.18**

-2.25**

-2.53***

2.65***

-2.36***

-2.41***

MDM

-1.88**

-2.13**

2.49***

-1.91**

-2.06**

-2.13**

-2.39***

2.51***

-2.23**

-2.28**

6 RMSFE

0.84

0.83

1.18

0.83

0.79

0.81

0.80

1.18

0.79

0.74

DM

-2.37***

-2.85***

3.11***

-1.89**

-2.32**

-2.20**

-2.46***

2.33***

-2.16**

-2.40***

MDM

-2.21**

-2.66***

2.90***

-1.76**

-2.17**

-2.05**

-2.30**

2.18**

-2.02**

-2.24**

7 RMSFE

0.83

0.81

1.17

0.81

0.77

0.76

0.75

1.12

0.73

0.69

DM

-2.66***

-3.83***

3.46***

-1.92**

-2.21**

-2.49***

-2.73***

1.97**

-2.42***

-2.61***

MDM

-2.45***

-3.53***

3.19***

-1.77**

-2.03**

-2.29**

-2.51***

1.81**

-2.23**

-2.40***

8 RMSFE

0.80

0.79

1.13

0.76

0.75

0.74

0.72

1.09

0.68

0.65

DM

-2.56***

-2.95***

2.10**

-2.18**

-1.95**

-2.61***

-2.75***

1.24

-2.92***

-2.76***

MDM

-2.32**

-2.68***

1.91**

-1.98**

-1.77**

-2.37**

-2.50***

1.13

-2.65***

-2.50***

Notes: The Table reports the RMSFE relative to the Phillips curve benchmark model. Relative RMFSEs
smaller than 1 are documented in bold print. The lag length is set to minimize the Schwarz-information
criteria. (M)DM indicates the (modified) Diebold-Mariano test statistic. *** (**) (*) denotes significance at
the 0.99 (0.95) (0.90) level.



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