The name is absent



Table 6

Forecast accuracy of alternative Phillips curves, Germany

____________________________________West Germany, 1985:1 - 1998:4__________________________________

x = GDP

x = unemployment rate

h

Med

Diff

Mom

WMed       tr20

Med

Diff

Mom

WMed

tr20

s

s ff

s

s          s

s

s ff

s

s

s

1

RMSFE

0.85

0.85

0.94

0.94    0.97

0.99

1.00

1.01

1.05

1.06

DM

-0.55

-0.55

-0.25

-0.21    -0.10

-0.05

-0.02

0.05

0.22

0.29

MDM

-0.54

-0.54

-0.25

-0.21    -0.10

-0.05

-0.02

0.05

0.22

0.28

2

RMSFE

0.77

0.70

0.94

0.98    0.95

0.96

0.89

1.00

1.01

1.05

DM

-1.20

-1.10

-0.35

-0.11    -0.23

-0.20

-0.36

0.02

0.02

0.17

MDM

-1.13

-1.04

-0.33

-0.10    -0.22

-0.19

-0.34

0.02

0.02

0.16

3

RMSFE

0.77

0.70

0.86

0.85    0.82

0.90

0.88

0.89

0.90

0.93

DM

-1.88**

-1.75**

-2.98***

-3.17*** -1.69**

-0.51

-0.55

-0.83

-0.59

-0.32

MDM

-1.70*

-1.58*

-2.69***

-2.86*** -1.53*

-0.46

-0.50

-0.75

-0.53

-0.29

4

RMSFE

0.52

0.50

0.85

0.82     0.63

0.98

0.75

0.78

0.77

0.84

DM

-2.23**

-1.78**

-0.83

-1.23 -2.23**

NA

-1.50*

-1.58*

-1.79**

-1.40*

MDM

-1.92**

-1.53*

-0.71

-1.06 -1.92**

0.00

-1.29

-1.36*

-1.54*

-1.20

Germany, 1993:1

- 2007:4

x = GDP

x = unemployment rate

h

Med

Diff

Mom

WMed       tr20

Med

Diff

Mom

WMed

tr20

s

s ff

s

s          s

s

s ff

s

s

s

1

RMSFE

0.95

1.01

1.18

1.02     1.02

1.06

1.19

1.24

1.16

1.09

DM

-0.65

0.05

1.89**

0.22    0.25

0.73

1.93**

2.60***

1.63*

0.96

MDM

-0.64

0.05

1.86**

0.22    0.25

0.72

1.90**

2.56***

1.61*

0.95

2

RMSFE

0.86

1.05

1.21

1.01     1.01

1.06

1.16

1.27

1.26

1.14

DM

-1.05

0.51

1.37*

0.05     0.08

0.53

2.97***

1.87**

3.05***

1.20

MDM

-1.00

0.49

1.31*

0.05     0.08

0.51

2.84***

1.79**

2.92***

1.15

3

RMSFE

0.85

1.04

1.20

0.96     1.00

1.06

1.21

1.18

1.22

1.13

DM

-0.85

0.28

1.70**

-0.24    0.02

0.34

1.45*

1.28

1.26

0.74

MDM

-0.79

0.26

1.57*

-0.22    0.02

0.31

1.34*

1.19

1.17

0.69

4

RMSFE

0.84

0.97

1.23

0.95     1.04

1.12

1.24

1.28

1.29

1.18

DM

-0.80

-0.15

2.60***

-0.25     0.28

0.63

1.47*

2.39***

1.50*

1.17

MDM

-0.72

-0.13

2.32**

-0.22    0.25

0.56

1.31*

2.14**

1.34*

1.05

Notes: The Table reports the RMSFE relative to the Phillips curve benchmark model. Relative RMSFEs
smaller than 1 are documented in bold print. The lag length is set to minimize the Schwarz-information
criteria. (M)DM indicates the (modified) Diebold-Mariano test statistic. *** (**) (*) denotes significance at
the 0.99 (0.95) (0.90) level.



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