24
Table 8
Forecast breakdown tests, Germany
West Germany, 1985:1 - 1998:4
|
A |
x = GDP |
x = unemployment rate | ||||||||
|
sMed |
sDf |
sMom |
sWMed |
s' 2° |
s.M |
sDif |
s Mom |
sWMed |
^t 2° | |
|
1 |
-2.12 |
-2.09 |
-1.70 |
-1.63 |
-1.38 |
-1.51 |
-1.52 |
-1.43 |
-0.82 |
-0.76 |
|
2 |
-2.54 |
-2.96 |
-2.31 |
-1.25 |
-1.39 |
-1.8° |
-2.11 |
-2.27 |
-0.45 |
-°.89 |
|
3 |
-2.48 |
-3.12 |
-2.54 |
-1.45 |
-1.62 |
-1.47 |
-1.96 |
-2.44 |
-0.43 |
-1.°3 |
|
4 |
-3.48 |
-3.25 |
-1.71 |
-1.99 |
-2.16 |
-2.24 |
-2.11 |
-1.93 |
-°.8° |
-1.42 |
Germany, 1993:1 - 2007:4
|
________________x = GDP_______________ |
x = |
unemployment rate | ||||||||
|
A |
s Med |
SDif |
s Mom |
sWMed |
St 2° |
s.M |
sDf |
s Mom |
sWMed |
St 2° |
|
1 |
1.6* |
2** |
°.5 |
1.6°* |
2.°°** |
2.2** |
2** |
°.91 |
1.6°* |
2.1°** |
|
2 |
1.2 |
1.9** |
°.67 |
1.5°* |
2.3°** |
2.1** |
1.7** |
°.69 |
1.3°* |
2.3°** |
|
3 |
1.2 |
°.82 |
°.6 |
°.78 |
2.°°** |
2.1** |
°.86 |
°.35 |
°.79 |
2.2°** |
|
4 |
1.8** |
1 |
°.54 |
°.91 |
2.8°*** |
3*** |
1.4* |
°.28 |
°.99 |
2.9°*** |
Notes: The Table reports the FB-test statistics. *** (**) (*) denotes significance at the 0.99 (0.95) (0.90)
level. Throughout the estimation the lag length is fixed to 2.
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