$110 billion in US exports. Reverting to the transportation costs of the early 1980s has the smallest
impact of any of the six scenarios—a cut in US exports by $23 billion or roughly 2 percent per year.16
Repealing US FTAs would have a large impact on the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Exports from
the three countries would fall by $50 billion, $25 billion, and $20 billion, respectively; in percentage
terms, 4, 8, and 10 percent, respectively. The impact of repealing US FTAs would be marginal in both
absolute and percentage terms for Australian and Singaporean exports.
Tables 10 and 11 show the estimated impact on imports for each of the six scenarios. The impact
on imports in dollar terms (table 10) for the United States is larger than the impact on exports in every
scenario except NTB reversion, Scenario 5.17 The Tokyo Round reversion is estimated to have the largest
dollar impact on imports, $150 billion or 9 percent of US imports. Reverting to 1980 transportation
costs has the smallest impact, roughly $45 billion or 2.5 percent of imports. Repealing US FTAs would
reduce US imports by roughly $60 billion or about 4 percent of total imports of goods and services. The
impact on Canada would be roughly $25 billion or 8 percent of imports; the impact on Mexico would be
$20 billion or 10 percent of imports.
The general equilibrium analysis also provides a picture of the impact of the six scenarios on US
trade across sectors. For exports, the biggest hits come in the chemical, rubber, and plastics sector, the
motor vehicles sector, and the other machinery and equipment sector (tables 12 and 13). Reverting to
Tokyo Round tariffs would cut exports in the chemical, rubber, and plastics sector by $20 billion (14
percent), the motor vehicles sector by $12 billion (15 percent), and the other machinery sector by $25
billion (14 percent). The Tokyo Round scenario would also drastically cut exports of dairy products
and sugar, dropping them 77 percent ($2 billion) and 35 percent ($40 million), respectively. Another
observation of note is the $20 billion decline in services exports in the NTB reversion scenario.18
For US imports the biggest changes are in motor vehicles, electronic equipment, and other
machinery and equipment. Reverting to Tokyo Round tariffs in the United States would cut motor
vehicle imports by $22 billion, electronic equipment imports by $33 billion, and other machinery and
equipment imports by $31 billion (table 14). Reverting to Uruguay Round tariffs would cut imports in
the three sectors by roughly $20 billion each. A reversion to 1990 NTB levels of protection would have a
substantial impact on motor vehicle imports, slashing them 16 percent or $32 billion. The NTB reversion
scenario indicates a $13 billion or 23 percent decline in wearing apparel imports (table 15), reflecting the
high levels of US protection for textiles and clothing in the early 1990s.
16. This result is similar to our partial equilibrium analysis, which reflects a small decrease in transportation costs over the
period.
17. However, in the percentage terms shown in table 11—comparing imports lost as a share of total imports versus exports
lost as a share of total exports—only the transportation cost scenario has a larger impact on imports than exports.
18. We do not include service NTBs in our analysis. The calculated impact on services trade comes from the impact of
reversion scenarios on terms of trade and efficiency for the whole economy.
11