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94


1.00

0.95

0.90

0.85

0.80

0.75


Simulation true success rates

Figure 4.2: Scenario SO. Coverage probabilities of the central 95% credible intervals
under the NEPPM with 7 = 1 vs. the HLRM. From left to right, the first three
success rates correspond to poor prognosis (τi = —1), the following six to intermediate
(xi = 0) and the last three to good prognosis (xi = 1). The character sizes are
proportional to the sample size N{.




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