96
Figure 4.3: Scenarios Sl through S4. Panels (a) through (d) summarize simulation
under scenarios Sl through S4. Comparison of the estimated success rates under
the NEPPM (star “*”) vs. the HLRM (circle “o”). The horizontal axis shows the
n = 12 true success rates under the assumed scenario. The upper, medium and lower
panels show absolute value of the bias, mean square error and coverage probability of
the central 95% credible interval, respectively. All are arranged by subtype. Under
Sl (panel (a)), from left to right, the first three success rates correspond to poor
prognosis {xl — —1), the following six to intermediate (rrj = 0) and the last three to
good prognosis (xi = 1). The point sizes are proportional to the sample size Nl.
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