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102

with the same prognosis.

Appendix

Gibbs Sampling Scheme

Any set of imputed parameters θι,..., θn corresponds to a partition p = (Si,..., S⅛)
of the indices {1,..., n}. Let
θ*,..., θ*κ the unique values in the sample in order of
appearance and define
Sk = {i '■ θi = θ*k}.

Consider the Dirichlet process mixture model (Antoniak, 1974) in (3.9). Let
д~г (flɪ,...,0i-ι,θi+1, ...,θn) denote all values but θi. Let K~l be the number of
unique values in
θ~ let θ↑~ ..., θ*1^i be these different values in order of appearance
and
p~l be the partition implied by θ~l. Use equation (4.5) with the n—1 observations
and let the observation
i be the future observation (exchangeability allows us to
permutate the indices) to get:

κ~i

pi I θ~i] = fκ-41(p-i)g0i) + ∑ Λ(p-‰-O,
fc=l

where δx is a pointmass at x and go is the pdf corresponding to Go- Therefore,

p[θi I θ~i,yn] <xp[yn I θi,θ~i]p[θi I θ~i]


κ~i                  `

⅛.+ι(∏G0(¾) +             ,

fc=l
κ~i

<xp[Vi I θl]fκ+1{p~l')Go{θi') + V fk(p~l)p[yi I θiθ*-i(θi)
• ∙                                              K

fc=l

Using (4.5) we get:

κ~i /    +1 V

p[θi I θ~ yn] oc ⅛p[yi I 0i]Go(0l) + £ #Sfc           ) p[yi Λ-ii),

where I is the value of the categorical covariate (in our particular, the prognosis)
corresponding to the
ith experimental unit (patient).



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