|
Table 9: Projection results under alternative parameter assumptions on growth coefficients and time horizon_______________________________ | ||||||||||||
|
Lowest coefficient |
Highest coefficient |
Lower bound confidence |
Upper bound confidence |
Time horizon 2050 |
Time horizon 2150 | |||||||
|
Bilhon S |
% GDP |
Bilhon S |
% GDP |
BiHion S |
% GDP |
Bilfion S |
% GDP |
Billion S |
% GDP |
Billion S |
% GDP | |
|
(ɪ) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
(6) |
P) |
(8) |
(9) |
(ɪθ) |
(11) |
(12) | |
|
Australia |
1,548 |
170% |
2,217 |
243% |
1,317 |
144% |
2,899 |
318% |
308 |
34% |
5,805 |
636% |
|
Austria |
1,128 |
336% |
1,641 |
489% |
954 |
284% |
2,182 |
650% |
219 |
65% |
4,555 |
1,357% |
|
Belgium |
1,163 |
278% |
1,683 |
402% |
986 |
235% |
2,224 |
531% |
227 |
54% |
4,576 |
1,093% |
|
Canada |
2,022 |
144% |
2,888 |
206% |
1,722 |
123% |
3,767 |
268% |
404 |
29% |
7,497 |
534% |
|
Czech Republic |
862 |
299% |
1,249 |
434% |
730 |
254% |
1,655 |
575% |
168 |
58% |
3,423 |
1,189% |
|
Denmark |
893 |
423% |
1,310 |
621% |
753 |
357% |
1,757 |
833% |
171 |
81% |
3,750 |
1,778% |
|
Finland |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
|
France |
8,268 |
364% |
12,065 |
531% |
6,989 |
308% |
16,083 |
708% |
1,596 |
70% |
33,815 |
1,488% |
|
Germany |
12,519 |
409% |
18,348 |
600% |
10,567 |
346% |
24,569 |
803% |
2,400 |
78% |
52,262 |
1,709% |
|
Greece |
2,993 |
825% |
4,558 |
1256% |
2,493 |
687% |
6,354 |
1751% |
540 |
149% |
15,071 |
4,153% |
|
Hungary |
957 |
458% |
1,409 |
674% |
807 |
386% |
1,896 |
907% |
182 |
87% |
4,084 |
1,954% |
|
Iceland |
48 |
385% |
70 |
563% |
41 |
325% |
94 |
753% |
9 |
74% |
198 |
1,591% |
|
Ireland |
725 |
357% |
1,057 |
521% |
613 |
302% |
1,409 |
694% |
140 |
69% |
2,957 |
1,457% |
|
Italy |
13,726 |
717% |
20,702 |
1081% |
11,473 |
599% |
28,562 |
1491% |
2,516 |
131% |
65,827 |
3,436% |
|
Japan |
2,145 |
47% |
3,034 |
66% |
1,833 |
40% |
3,920 |
85% |
436 |
9% |
7,618 |
165% |
|
Korea, Rep. |
565 |
40% |
799 |
56% |
483 |
34% |
1,031 |
72% |
115 |
8% |
2,000 |
140% |
|
Luxembourg |
299 |
685% |
450 |
1030% |
250 |
573% |
619 |
1417% |
55 |
126% |
1,415 |
3,238% |
|
Mexico |
26,267 |
1594% |
42,714 |
2593% |
21,416 |
1300% |
63,912 |
3879% |
4,306 |
261% |
186,466 |
11,318% |
|
Netherlands |
996 |
141% |
1,423 |
202% |
849 |
120% |
1,855 |
263% |
199 |
28% |
3,689 |
524% |
|
New Zealand |
204 |
163% |
292 |
233% |
173 |
139% |
381 |
305% |
41 |
32% |
762 |
610% |
|
Norway |
1,425 |
487% |
2,104 |
719% |
1,200 |
410% |
2,839 |
971% |
270 |
92% |
6,162 |
2,107% |
|
Poland |
3,829 |
521% |
5,672 |
772% |
3,221 |
438% |
7,679 |
1045% |
722 |
98% |
16,813 |
2,289% |
|
Portugal |
2,018 |
785% |
3,063 |
1191% |
1,684 |
655% |
4,254 |
1654% |
366 |
142% |
9,983 |
3,882% |
|
Slovak Repubhc |
568 |
477% |
838 |
704% |
478 |
402% |
1,130 |
949% |
108 |
91% |
2,445 |
2,054% |
|
Spain |
8,845 |
568% |
13,158 |
844% |
7,428 |
477% |
17,893 |
1148% |
1,656 |
106% |
39,653 |
2,544% |
|
Sweden |
1,285 |
343% |
1,872 |
500% |
1,087 |
290% |
2,490 |
665% |
249 |
66% |
5,208 |
1,391% |
|
Switzerland |
852 |
245% |
1,229 |
353% |
723 |
208% |
1,619 |
466% |
168 |
48% |
3,304 |
950% |
|
Turkey |
13,273 |
1258% |
20,994 |
1990% |
10,920 |
1035% |
30,478 |
2889% |
2,265 |
215% |
81,227 |
7,700% |
|
United Kingdom |
5,804 |
244% |
8,372 |
352% |
4,926 |
207% |
11,029 |
464% |
1,141 |
48% |
22,498 |
946% |
|
United States |
80,503 |
530% |
119,336 |
785% |
67,686 |
445% |
161,693 |
1064% |
15,155 |
100% |
354,821 |
2,335% |
|
OECD_______ |
195,731 |
459% |
294,547 |
690% |
163,804 |
384% |
406,270 |
952% |
36,131 |
85% |
947,885 |
2,221% |
|
Notes'. Scenario II: Bring each country to Finish level of 546 points on PISA. Discounted value of future increases in GDP until 2090, expressed |
in billion $ (PPP) and | |||||||||||
|
as percentage of current GDP. | ||||||||||||
|
Source: Authors’ |
calculations. | |||||||||||
|
Table 10: Projection results under alternative parameter assumptions on reform duration, working life |
and discount rate | |||||||||||
|
10-year reform |
30-year reform |
Working Hfe 35 years |
Discount rate 2.5% |
Discomt rate 3.5% |
Disc, rate Stem Report | |||||||
|
Bilhon S |
% GDP |
Bilhon S |
% GDP |
BiHion S |
% GDP |
Billion S |
% GDP |
Billion S |
% GDP |
Billion S |
% GDP | |
|
(ɪ) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
(6) |
P) |
(8) |
(9) |
(ɪθ) |
(11) |
(12) | |
|
AustraHa |
2,541 |
279% |
1,721 |
189% |
2,287 |
251% |
2,788 |
306% |
1,581 |
173% |
4,763 |
522% |
|
Austria |
1,887 |
562% |
1,263 |
376% |
1,694 |
504% |
2,062 |
614% |
1,165 |
347% |
3,533 |
1,052% |
|
Belgium |
1,933 |
462% |
1,299 |
310% |
1,736 |
415% |
2,115 |
505% |
1,197 |
286% |
3,621 |
865% |
|
Canada |
3,310 |
236% |
2,246 |
160% |
2,980 |
212% |
3,633 |
259% |
2,062 |
147% |
6,204 |
442% |
|
Czech Repubhc |
1,435 |
499% |
963 |
335% |
1,289 |
448% |
1,570 |
545% |
888 |
309% |
2,689 |
934% |
|
Denmark |
1,508 |
715% |
1,004 |
476% |
1,352 |
641% |
1,645 |
780% |
928 |
440% |
2,823 |
1,338% |
|
Finland |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0% |
|
France |
13,875 |
610% |
9,272 |
408% |
12,449 |
548% |
15,152 |
667% |
8,559 |
377% |
25,981 |
1,143% |
|
Germany |
21,116 |
691% |
14,067 |
460% |
18,934 |
619% |
23,034 |
753% |
13,000 |
425% |
39,530 |
1,293% |
|
Greece |
5,279 |
1455% |
3,421 |
943% |
4,705 |
1296% |
5,703 |
1572% |
3,193 |
880% |
9,855 |
2,716% |
|
Hungary |
1,623 |
777% |
1,078 |
516% |
1,454 |
696% |
1,768 |
846% |
997 |
477% |
3,037 |
1,453% |
|
Iceland |
81 |
648% |
54 |
432% |
72 |
581% |
88 |
707% |
50 |
399% |
151 |
1,213% |
|
Ireland |
1,216 |
599% |
813 |
401% |
1,091 |
538% |
1,328 |
654% |
750 |
370% |
2,277 |
1,122% |
|
Italy |
23,939 |
1250% |
15,624 |
816% |
21,367 |
1115% |
25,926 |
1353% |
14,545 |
759% |
44,724 |
2,335% |
|
Japan |
3,472 |
75% |
2,372 |
52% |
3,130 |
68% |
3,820 |
83% |
2,173 |
47% |
6,510 |
141% |
|
Korea, Rep. |
914 |
64% |
625 |
44% |
824 |
58% |
1,005 |
70% |
572 |
40% |
1,713 |
120% |
|
Luxembourg |
520 |
1191% |
340 |
779% |
465 |
1063% |
564 |
1290% |
317 |
724% |
972 |
2,225% |
|
Mexico |
50,015 |
3036% |
30,929 |
1877% |
44,093 |
2676% |
53,101 |
3223% |
29,371 |
1783% |
92,736 |
5,629% |
|
Netherlands |
1,630 |
231% |
1,106 |
157% |
1,468 |
208% |
1,790 |
254% |
1,016 |
144% |
3,056 |
434% |
|
New Zealand |
334 |
267% |
227 |
181% |
301 |
241% |
367 |
293% |
208 |
166% |
627 |
501% |
|
Norway |
2,425 |
829% |
1,607 |
549% |
2,172 |
742% |
2,640 |
903% |
1,488 |
509% |
4,537 |
1,551% |
|
Poland |
6,539 |
890% |
4,323 |
589% |
5,854 |
797% |
7,114 |
969% |
4,006 |
545% |
12,233 |
1,665% |
|
Portugal |
3,546 |
1379% |
2,304 |
896% |
3,161 |
1229% |
3,834 |
1491% |
2,148 |
835% |
6,621 |
2,575% |
|
Slovak Repubhc |
965 |
811% |
640 |
538% |
865 |
726% |
1,051 |
883% |
593 |
498% |
1,807 |
1,518% |
|
Spain |
15,180 |
974% |
10,005 |
642% |
13,579 |
871% |
16,498 |
1059% |
9,282 |
596% |
28,390 |
1,822% |
|
Sweden |
2,152 |
575% |
1,440 |
385% |
1,931 |
516% |
2,351 |
628% |
1,329 |
355% |
4,030 |
1,076% |
|
Switzerland |
1,411 |
406% |
951 |
273% |
1,268 |
365% |
1,545 |
444% |
875 |
252% |
2,643 |
760% |
|
Turkey |
24,470 |
2320% |
15,436 |
1463% |
21,672 |
2055% |
26,174 |
2481% |
14,550 |
1379% |
45,513 |
4,315% |
|
United Kingdom |
9,609 |
404% |
6,475 |
272% |
8,638 |
363% |
10,523 |
442% |
5,960 |
251% |
18,005 |
757% |
|
United States |
137,603 |
906% |
90,922 |
598% |
123,157 |
811% |
149,676 |
985% |
84,272 |
555% |
257,402 |
1,694% |
|
OECD_______ |
340,528 |
798% |
222,527 |
521% |
303,987 |
712% |
368,864 |
864% |
207,075 |
485% |
635,982 |
1,490% |
|
Notes: Scenario II: Bring each countιy to Finish level of 546 points on PISA. Discounted value of future increases in GDP until 2090, expressed |
in billion $ (PPP) and | |||||||||||
|
as percentage of current GDP. | ||||||||||||
|
Source: Authors’ |
calculations. | |||||||||||
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