How much do Educational Outcomes Matter in OECD Countries?

Table 9: Projection results under alternative parameter assumptions on growth coefficients and time horizon_______________________________

Lowest coefficient

Highest coefficient

Lower bound confidence

Upper bound confidence

Time horizon 2050

Time horizon 2150

Bilhon S

% GDP

Bilhon S

% GDP

BiHion S

% GDP

Bilfion S

% GDP

Billion S

% GDP

Billion S

% GDP

(ɪ)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

P)

(8)

(9)

(ɪθ)

(11)

(12)

Australia

1,548

170%

2,217

243%

1,317

144%

2,899

318%

308

34%

5,805

636%

Austria

1,128

336%

1,641

489%

954

284%

2,182

650%

219

65%

4,555

1,357%

Belgium

1,163

278%

1,683

402%

986

235%

2,224

531%

227

54%

4,576

1,093%

Canada

2,022

144%

2,888

206%

1,722

123%

3,767

268%

404

29%

7,497

534%

Czech Republic

862

299%

1,249

434%

730

254%

1,655

575%

168

58%

3,423

1,189%

Denmark

893

423%

1,310

621%

753

357%

1,757

833%

171

81%

3,750

1,778%

Finland

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

France

8,268

364%

12,065

531%

6,989

308%

16,083

708%

1,596

70%

33,815

1,488%

Germany

12,519

409%

18,348

600%

10,567

346%

24,569

803%

2,400

78%

52,262

1,709%

Greece

2,993

825%

4,558

1256%

2,493

687%

6,354

1751%

540

149%

15,071

4,153%

Hungary

957

458%

1,409

674%

807

386%

1,896

907%

182

87%

4,084

1,954%

Iceland

48

385%

70

563%

41

325%

94

753%

9

74%

198

1,591%

Ireland

725

357%

1,057

521%

613

302%

1,409

694%

140

69%

2,957

1,457%

Italy

13,726

717%

20,702

1081%

11,473

599%

28,562

1491%

2,516

131%

65,827

3,436%

Japan

2,145

47%

3,034

66%

1,833

40%

3,920

85%

436

9%

7,618

165%

Korea, Rep.

565

40%

799

56%

483

34%

1,031

72%

115

8%

2,000

140%

Luxembourg

299

685%

450

1030%

250

573%

619

1417%

55

126%

1,415

3,238%

Mexico

26,267

1594%

42,714

2593%

21,416

1300%

63,912

3879%

4,306

261%

186,466

11,318%

Netherlands

996

141%

1,423

202%

849

120%

1,855

263%

199

28%

3,689

524%

New Zealand

204

163%

292

233%

173

139%

381

305%

41

32%

762

610%

Norway

1,425

487%

2,104

719%

1,200

410%

2,839

971%

270

92%

6,162

2,107%

Poland

3,829

521%

5,672

772%

3,221

438%

7,679

1045%

722

98%

16,813

2,289%

Portugal

2,018

785%

3,063

1191%

1,684

655%

4,254

1654%

366

142%

9,983

3,882%

Slovak Repubhc

568

477%

838

704%

478

402%

1,130

949%

108

91%

2,445

2,054%

Spain

8,845

568%

13,158

844%

7,428

477%

17,893

1148%

1,656

106%

39,653

2,544%

Sweden

1,285

343%

1,872

500%

1,087

290%

2,490

665%

249

66%

5,208

1,391%

Switzerland

852

245%

1,229

353%

723

208%

1,619

466%

168

48%

3,304

950%

Turkey

13,273

1258%

20,994

1990%

10,920

1035%

30,478

2889%

2,265

215%

81,227

7,700%

United Kingdom

5,804

244%

8,372

352%

4,926

207%

11,029

464%

1,141

48%

22,498

946%

United States

80,503

530%

119,336

785%

67,686

445%

161,693

1064%

15,155

100%

354,821

2,335%

OECD_______

195,731

459%

294,547

690%

163,804

384%

406,270

952%

36,131

85%

947,885

2,221%

Notes'. Scenario II: Bring each country to Finish level of 546 points on PISA. Discounted value of future increases in GDP until 2090, expressed

in billion $ (PPP) and

as percentage of current GDP.

Source: Authors’

calculations.

Table 10: Projection results under alternative parameter assumptions on reform duration, working life

and discount rate

10-year reform

30-year reform

Working Hfe 35 years

Discount rate 2.5%

Discomt rate 3.5%

Disc, rate Stem Report

Bilhon S

% GDP

Bilhon S

% GDP

BiHion S

% GDP

Billion S

% GDP

Billion S

% GDP

Billion S

% GDP

(ɪ)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

P)

(8)

(9)

(ɪθ)

(11)

(12)

AustraHa

2,541

279%

1,721

189%

2,287

251%

2,788

306%

1,581

173%

4,763

522%

Austria

1,887

562%

1,263

376%

1,694

504%

2,062

614%

1,165

347%

3,533

1,052%

Belgium

1,933

462%

1,299

310%

1,736

415%

2,115

505%

1,197

286%

3,621

865%

Canada

3,310

236%

2,246

160%

2,980

212%

3,633

259%

2,062

147%

6,204

442%

Czech Repubhc

1,435

499%

963

335%

1,289

448%

1,570

545%

888

309%

2,689

934%

Denmark

1,508

715%

1,004

476%

1,352

641%

1,645

780%

928

440%

2,823

1,338%

Finland

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

France

13,875

610%

9,272

408%

12,449

548%

15,152

667%

8,559

377%

25,981

1,143%

Germany

21,116

691%

14,067

460%

18,934

619%

23,034

753%

13,000

425%

39,530

1,293%

Greece

5,279

1455%

3,421

943%

4,705

1296%

5,703

1572%

3,193

880%

9,855

2,716%

Hungary

1,623

777%

1,078

516%

1,454

696%

1,768

846%

997

477%

3,037

1,453%

Iceland

81

648%

54

432%

72

581%

88

707%

50

399%

151

1,213%

Ireland

1,216

599%

813

401%

1,091

538%

1,328

654%

750

370%

2,277

1,122%

Italy

23,939

1250%

15,624

816%

21,367

1115%

25,926

1353%

14,545

759%

44,724

2,335%

Japan

3,472

75%

2,372

52%

3,130

68%

3,820

83%

2,173

47%

6,510

141%

Korea, Rep.

914

64%

625

44%

824

58%

1,005

70%

572

40%

1,713

120%

Luxembourg

520

1191%

340

779%

465

1063%

564

1290%

317

724%

972

2,225%

Mexico

50,015

3036%

30,929

1877%

44,093

2676%

53,101

3223%

29,371

1783%

92,736

5,629%

Netherlands

1,630

231%

1,106

157%

1,468

208%

1,790

254%

1,016

144%

3,056

434%

New Zealand

334

267%

227

181%

301

241%

367

293%

208

166%

627

501%

Norway

2,425

829%

1,607

549%

2,172

742%

2,640

903%

1,488

509%

4,537

1,551%

Poland

6,539

890%

4,323

589%

5,854

797%

7,114

969%

4,006

545%

12,233

1,665%

Portugal

3,546

1379%

2,304

896%

3,161

1229%

3,834

1491%

2,148

835%

6,621

2,575%

Slovak Repubhc

965

811%

640

538%

865

726%

1,051

883%

593

498%

1,807

1,518%

Spain

15,180

974%

10,005

642%

13,579

871%

16,498

1059%

9,282

596%

28,390

1,822%

Sweden

2,152

575%

1,440

385%

1,931

516%

2,351

628%

1,329

355%

4,030

1,076%

Switzerland

1,411

406%

951

273%

1,268

365%

1,545

444%

875

252%

2,643

760%

Turkey

24,470

2320%

15,436

1463%

21,672

2055%

26,174

2481%

14,550

1379%

45,513

4,315%

United Kingdom

9,609

404%

6,475

272%

8,638

363%

10,523

442%

5,960

251%

18,005

757%

United States

137,603

906%

90,922

598%

123,157

811%

149,676

985%

84,272

555%

257,402

1,694%

OECD_______

340,528

798%

222,527

521%

303,987

712%

368,864

864%

207,075

485%

635,982

1,490%

Notes: Scenario II: Bring each countιy to Finish level of 546 points on PISA. Discounted value of future increases in GDP until 2090, expressed

in billion $ (PPP) and

as percentage of current GDP.

Source: Authors’

calculations.