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Table 4

Political outcomes in panel - periods correspond to legislatures
GMM estimates

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

Dep. Var.

party_frag

coalition

single

coalition

single

party_frag

1.35

-1.26

(0.81)*

(0.63)**

maj

-0.06

0.37

0.14

(0.04)

(0.48)

(0.09)*

district

2.31

6.31

-0.10

(0.24)***

(3.02)**

(0.56)

threshold

-0.00

0.16

-0.00

(0.00)

(0.10)

(0.01)

Over-id

4.16 (3)

0.01 (1)

2.48 (1)

3.83 (6)

3.70 (6)

AR(2)

0.68

-0.02

0.93

0.01

0.46

Estimation

GMM

GMM

GMM

GMM

GMM

Obs.

141

97

97

97

97

N. countries

37

35

35

35

35

Robust standard errors in parentheses; * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.

Estimation method: Arellano-Bond GMM estimates (all variables in first differences).

Specification: always included, constant, lpop; polity_gt , and lagged Dep. var., once in col (1), twice in cols (2)—(5)).

In cols (1)-(5), instruments for lagged Dep. Var. is one additional lag of this variable.

In cols (4)-(5), party_frag is treated as endogenous with additional instruments: one lag of party_frag, maj, district, .and threshold..

AR(2) Arellano-Bond test for absence of second-order serial correlation.

Over-id: Sargan test of over-identifying restrictions, distributed as Chi2 with degrees of freedoms in parenthesis;

critical values at 5% confidence: 7.81 col (1), 3.84 cols (2)-(3), 12.59 cols (4)-(5).



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