Temporary Work in Turbulent Times: The Swedish Experience

Table 4.1. Estimated transition rate equations (permanent and temporary employment, unemployment and out-of-the labour force).

TP*R

(1)_________

P*TR

(2)__________

UP*R

(3)__________

UTR

(4)__________

OP*R

(5)____________

OTR

(6)__________

P*UR

(7)__________

P*OR

(8)__________

TUR

(9)__________

TOR
(10)

OUR
(11)

UOR
(12)

Constant
(first quarter)

-.750

(4.24)

-3.330

(5.90)

-1.448

(6.94)

-.817

(6.94)

-2.390

(7.30)

-3.978

(13.74)

-1.845

(3.97)

-1.726

(4.16)

-1.644

(5.08)

-2.172

(12.02)

-1.958

(8.76)

-1.341

(6.13)

YDEVt-1

1.267

(2.57)

2.537

(3.36)

6.264

(4.85)

2.632

(3.97)

3.941
(4.08)

4.197

(5.72)

-5.052

(3.77)

-6.170

(5.31)

-1.673

(3.90)

-6.696

(8.58)

-1.151

(1.97)

∆ YDEV_t

3.849

(4.47)

3.326

(2.96)

6.979

(4.66)

3.547

(5.61)

2.488

(1.79)

5.778

(4.85)

-6.227

(4.82)

-4.981

(4.74)

-2.261

(2.27)

Lagged dep.
variable______

.629

(8.01)

.367

(3.35)

.387

(3.83)

.597

(6.53)

.334

(3.58)

-.235

(2.55)

.617

(7.72)

.645

(7.50)

.454

(4.70)

.164

(1.50)

.506

(9.80)

.245

(1.92)

Trend

.0042

(2.86)

-.0068

(3.32)

-.0057

(3.23)

.0056

(3.68)

-.0043

(2.21)

.0017

(2.01)

.0030

(1.94)

.0042

(2.70)

R ²_________

.786

.524

.900

.923

.819

.907

.878

.730

.920

.945

.951

.655

SE________

.103

.129

.172

.079

.161_________

.151

.175

.088

.129

.113

.136

.122

DW____

1.766

2.121

1.809

2.184

1.918________

2.269

1.795

2.416

2.189

1.735

1.980

1.819

Notes: The transition rates are in natural logarithms. P* denotes permanent employment (including self-employment), T is temporary employment, U is unemployment and O
is out-of-the labour force. A transition rate, from U to T, say, is denoted UTR. Seasonal dummies are always included. The estimation method is seemingly unrelated
regression. Estimation period: 1987.3-2000.2. A dummy for the first quarter of 1993 is included whenever found significant to capture changes in measurement methods.

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