Table 4.1. Estimated transition rate equations (permanent and temporary employment, unemployment and out-of-the labour force).
|
TP*R (1)_________ |
P*TR (2)__________ |
UP*R (3)__________ |
UTR (4)__________ |
OP*R (5)____________ |
OTR (6)__________ |
P*UR (7)__________ |
P*OR (8)__________ |
TUR (9)__________ |
TOR |
OUR |
UOR | |
|
Constant |
-.750 (4.24) |
-3.330 (5.90) |
-1.448 (6.94) |
-.817 (6.94) |
-2.390 (7.30) |
-3.978 (13.74) |
-1.845 (3.97) |
-1.726 (4.16) |
-1.644 (5.08) |
-2.172 (12.02) |
-1.958 (8.76) |
-1.341 (6.13) |
|
YDEVt-1 |
1.267 (2.57) |
2.537 (3.36) |
6.264 (4.85) |
2.632 (3.97) |
3.941 |
4.197 (5.72) |
-5.052 (3.77) |
-6.170 (5.31) |
-1.673 (3.90) |
-6.696 (8.58) |
-1.151 (1.97) | |
|
∆ YDEVt |
3.849 (4.47) |
3.326 (2.96) |
6.979 (4.66) |
3.547 (5.61) |
2.488 (1.79) |
5.778 (4.85) |
-6.227 (4.82) |
-4.981 (4.74) |
-2.261 (2.27) | |||
|
Lagged dep. |
.629 (8.01) |
.367 (3.35) |
.387 (3.83) |
.597 (6.53) |
.334 (3.58) |
-.235 (2.55) |
.617 (7.72) |
.645 (7.50) |
.454 (4.70) |
.164 (1.50) |
.506 (9.80) |
.245 (1.92) |
|
Trend |
.0042 (2.86) |
-.0068 (3.32) |
-.0057 (3.23) |
.0056 (3.68) |
-.0043 (2.21) |
.0017 (2.01) |
.0030 (1.94) |
.0042 (2.70) | ||||
|
R 2_________ |
.786 |
.524 |
.900 |
.923 |
.819 |
.907 |
.878 |
.730 |
.920 |
.945 |
.951 |
.655 |
|
SE________ |
.103 |
.129 |
.172 |
.079 |
.161_________ |
.151 |
.175 |
.088 |
.129 |
.113 |
.136 |
.122 |
|
DW____ |
1.766 |
2.121 |
1.809 |
2.184 |
1.918________ |
2.269 |
1.795 |
2.416 |
2.189 |
1.735 |
1.980 |
1.819 |
Notes: The transition rates are in natural logarithms. P* denotes permanent employment (including self-employment), T is temporary employment, U is unemployment and O
is out-of-the labour force. A transition rate, from U to T, say, is denoted UTR. Seasonal dummies are always included. The estimation method is seemingly unrelated
regression. Estimation period: 1987.3-2000.2. A dummy for the first quarter of 1993 is included whenever found significant to capture changes in measurement methods.