pressure, these are changes in social and economic conditions which threaten the fundamen-
tals of the welfare state’s policy arrangements: they include the changing nature of em-
ployment and the development of post-fordist labour markets, changes in family composi-
tion and the role of women, and, finally, unfavourable demographic developments such as
ageing and declining birth rates (Esping-Andersen 1996). The combined effect of these
developments has affected the standard employment relationship, the male bread-winner
model, and the earner-centred contribution base, upon all of which the Continental welfare
state was built. Some of these developments are challenging some specific programmes
more than others; I will now discuss each of them in turn, focusing on endogenous sources
of strain.2
Firstly, changes in family values and gender roles have resulted in a decline in the tradi-
tional family, which has been increasingly replaced by households made up of single per-
sons and single (or divorced) parents. In addition, the division of labour within families has
been changing. The former has led to relatively more claims on social benefits and/or child
care services from these households; the latter development has resulted in a questioning of
traditional assumptions built into welfare state programmes on who should receive social
benefits (Lewis 2002). In addition, different household structures combined with new forms
of work (see below) have generated new social needs and demands that are denoted as ‘new
social risks’. Such risks include reconciling work and family life, lone parenthood, long-
term unemployment, belonging to the so-called working poor, or insufficient social security
coverage. New risks tend to be concentrated among women, the young and the low skilled.
(Bonoli 2005).
As far as the organization of economies and the situation of labour markets and employ-
ment are concerned, many changes have occurred in that sphere, too. These include a slow-
down of productivity and economic growth compared to the post-war era (Pierson 1998); a
transition to post-fordist (or post-industrial) labour markets, implying deindustrialization, a
growth of the service sector, new technologies; and flexibilization of employment that af-
fected employment patterns, leading to less life-long careers and more variety in employ-
ment types, including temporary and irregular work (Esping-Andersen 1993). The conse-
quences for the welfare state and its programmes may be direct, as their sustainability is
2 To these largely endogenous sources of strain on welfare states, one may add a decline of traditional
corporatist patterns of interest intermediation as well as external pressures stemming from developments
such as globalization and intensified European integration (Van Kersbergen 2000: 22). For reasons of
space, these trends are not discussed in detail here. Concerning the influence of globalization on welfare
states, there exists a sizeable literature disagreeing about the precise nature of the relationship, i.e.
whether there is a negative or positive impact, and the mechanisms involved (Andersen 2003; Genschel
2004). In a recent contribution to the debate, an edited volume by Glatzer and Rueschemeyer (2005)
stresses the mediating effect of domestic institutions and political struggles on the effect of globalization
on welfare states. Similarly, with European integration (or ‘Europeanisation’) it is difficult to detect ef-
fects on national social policy because of conceptualization issues; in addition, its effects on national
social policies are hard to trace empirically. In addition, there is disagreement as well as differing empiri-
cal evidence the strength of such effects (Leibfried/Pierson 1995; Scharpf 2002; Ferrera 2005; Leibfried
2005; Steffen 2005; Stiller 2006).