2.3.2 A SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTIVITY
In order to determine the impact of cross-
country differences in specialisation patterns
and structural adjustments on productivity
growth, Table 4 shows the results from the shift-
share analysis for EU countries as well as the
EU as a whole, the euro area and the United
States over the period 1985-2001, for
manufacturing, utilities and business sector
services as well as the aggregate economy. Total
labour productivity (first column) is broken
down33 into productivity developments within a
sector (“Intra effect”, second column) and a shift
effect resulting from sectoral re-allocation
towards sectors with higher labour productivity
levels (“Shift effect”, third column).
Looking at the results for the aggregate economy,
the overwhelming share of productivity growth
was accounted for by the intra effect, except in
Greece and Luxembourg, where the shift effect
was respectively more important or as important as
the intra effect. Moreover, for all countries except
the UK the shift effect has contributed positively to
aggregate labour productivity growth, reflecting
the general shift from manufacturing to services,
with the level of labour productivity being in
general higher in services.
As regards the manufacturing sector, the
overwhelming share of labour productivity
growth was again accounted for by the intra
effect. Changes in the sectoral composition had
a significant positive impact only in Ireland and
- to a lesser extent - in Finland, possibly
reflecting resource re-allocation towards the
high-technology manufacturing sectors.
33 See Annex 4.2.1.3 for methodological details.
Table 4 Shift-share analysis
(1985-2001)
Utilities and Business
Total economy Manufacturing sector services
|
Produc- |
Intra |
Shift |
Produc- |
Intra |
Shift |
Produc- |
Intra |
Shift | |
|
Belgium |
1.7 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
0.2 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
|
Germany |
2.0 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
0.1 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
Greece |
1.9 |
0.5 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
0.9 |
|
Spain |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
|
France |
1.5 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
|
Ireland |
- |
- |
- |
5.1 |
4.0 |
1.1 |
- |
- |
- |
|
Italy |
1.5 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
|
Luxembourg |
2.5 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
|
Netherlands |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
-0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
Austria |
2.2 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
|
Portugal |
2.8 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
0.0 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
|
Finland |
3.0 |
2.7 |
0.3 |
5.5 |
5.0 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
0.5 |
|
Denmark |
1.6 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
0.2 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
|
Sweden |
2.1 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
|
United Kingdom |
1.9 |
2.3 |
-0.3 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
0.1 |
|
euro area |
1.6 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
European Union |
1.7 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
|
United States |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
0.1 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
Sources: OECD, European commission and ECB calculations.
Note: The analysis refers to the time period 1985-2001. For data availability reasons the business sector services are composed only of
three main sub-sectors for Belgium and the United Kingdom; moreover, data for business sector services are not complete for Sweden.
Data for the communication sector are missing for Luxembourg. The figures for the euro area and the EU refer to weighted averages;
they do not include Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg and Sweden on account of missing sectors.
30
ECB
Occasional Paper No. 19
July 2004