Five routes to higher education expansion
Given the slowdown in the rate of participation in full-time education and attainment among the
16-19 age group, the major question is how the growth in participation in higher education can be
increased without resorting to the lowering of higher education entry criteria. The next section of
this paper examines this question across five areas - the general education route for 16-19 year
olds, broad vocational qualifications for 16-19 year olds; apprenticeship and the work-base route;
part-time study for 20-30 year old employees and a range of widening participation initiatives
focusing on disadvantaged groups.
Route 1: Progression into higher education via the advanced general route at 18+
The growth of participation in higher education in the late 1980s and early 1990s was based on
strong rises in both A Level participation and attainment. As Figures 1 and 2 show, the 16+
participation, A Level attainment and higher education participation trends track each other very
closely. They all grew significantly in the period 1988-94 and they all show a plateauing pattern
since 1995.
The general education track, through A Level attainment, has traditionally provided more than
two thirds of the learners progressing into degree courses in higher education (UCAS 1999).
However, the proportion of learners entering higher education with A Levels has begun to
decline, particularly in relation to HNDs. Moreover, current attainment trends in GCSE and A
Level suggest that, for the moment at least, this route may not expand its throughput to higher
education. Participation in A Levels by 16 and 17 year olds has peaked at 35 per cent and the
numbers gaining two or more A Levels remain static at just over 29 per cent (DfEE 1999c,
1999d). Moreover, recent modest rises in the proportion of the cohort gaining five or more good
GCSE grades does not seem to be feeding through to advanced level.
At this point it is difficult to say whether the Government’s qualifications reforms at advanced
level, outlined in Qualifying for Success (DfEE 1997), will increase advanced level achievement
sufficiently to make a difference to higher education participation. We will see the first sign of
the impact of the reforms at the end of two years when students starting their advanced level
programmes in September 2000 will have gained both ASs and A2s. The new AS may provide a
more gradual slope of progression between GCSE and advanced level qualifications with
opportunities to gain advanced level credit at the end of the first year. If so, more students might
progress to a full A Level. However, the A2 may be more difficult than the current A Level. The
overall effects of the reforms may be improved breadth in student programmes of study but not
sufficiently improved grades to make a difference in participation rates to higher education. With
a policy focus on both breadth and standards, the overall effect of the reforms on levels of
attainment may, therefore, be neutral (Hodgson & Spours 2000b).
Route 2: Improved progression from full-time vocational education qualifications
Currently, broad vocational qualifications, such as GNVQ Advanced and BTEC awards at
national level and higher, provide about 12 per cent of those entering higher education courses
(UCAS 1999). However, the number of students from broad vocational courses progressing to
higher education has grown by only three per cent during the period 1994-98. There could be a
number of reasons for this very modest progress. First, despite the steady growth in participation
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