The Response of Ethiopian Grain Markets to Liberalization

Table 13 SURE estimates of the effects of seasonality, grain market liberalization, rainfall and food aid on white wheat
price spreads based on the assumption of weak market integration (1984:10 to 1993:12)

Independent variables	Market
Independent variables	Addis¹ Hosaenna²	Dire Dawa¹Addis²	Mekele¹ Addis²	Dire Dawa¹ Hosaenna²	Mekele¹ Hosaenna²
Constant	19.68^a	85.75^a	64.75^a	105.43^a	84.43^a
Dec	0.40	2.55	10.38	2.95	10.78
Jan	-3.50	15.70	-23.41	12.20	-26.91^c
Feb	-7.39	-0.92	-2.07	-8.31	-9.46
Mar	-17.11	8.82	12.52	-8.29	-4.59
Apr	-20.64	13.10	4.70	-7.54	-15.94
May	-15.17	6.54	11.83	-8.63	-3.34
Jun	-18.06^c	-8.72	22.49	-26.78b	4.43
Jul	1.68	-17.23	12.41	-15.55	14.09
Aug	3.89	-11.89	1.61	-8.00	5.50
Sep	3.93	-11.13	16.59	-7.20	20.52^c
Oct	-2.52	-10.57	-3.80	-13.09	-6.32
Dlib12	-9.52	-11.40	-44.15^a	-20.92b	-53.67^a
RF¹	-0.05	-0.00259	-0.19^a	-0.00259	-0.19^a
RF²	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04
FAID¹	0.000258	0.000431^c	-0.000274^a	0.000431^c	-0.000274^a
FAID²	0.000817	-0.000258	-0.000258	0.000817	0.000817
P¹ ^p t-1	0.70^a	0.28^a	0.67^a	0.28^a	0.67^a
P² ^p t-1_____________________	-0.67^a	-0.70^a	-0.70^a	-0.67^a	-0.67^a

Note: a, b, and c indicate statistical significance at a probability of less than 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.

-36-

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