Table 6.2 Total SFA and Its Components (% of GDP) before Revisions
|
Deficit-specific ________SFA (x) |
Debt-specific _______SFA (z)________ |
Total ______SFA______ | |
|
Belgium |
-0.3 |
0.3 |
-0.6 |
|
Denmark |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
|
Germany |
0.7 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
|
Greece |
5.0 |
-0.9 |
5.9 |
|
Spain |
0.3 |
-0.3 |
0.7 |
|
France |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
|
Ireland |
2.0 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
Italy |
1.4 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
|
The Netherlands |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
-0.5 |
|
Austria |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
|
Portugal |
1.5 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
|
Finland |
1.4 |
-0.9 |
2.3 |
|
Sweden |
1.5 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
|
UnitedKingdom |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
EUaverage |
_____________1.2_____________ |
___________0.3______________ |
_________0.9___________ |
Note: average values over 1994-2004, data before revisions occurred since 2002.
6.3 Deficit Revisions in Italy, Portugal, and Greece
Evidence supporting the usefulness of crosschecking fiscal data is provided by three case
studies of significant deficit data revisions. These revisions concerned the 2001 deficit
outcome in Italy and Portugal and the 2003 deficit outturn in Greece. In all three cases,
the initial deficit figure was consistent with the forecasts by international organisations.
This seems to indicate that by looking at the ESA95 deficit in isolation all parties
involved can get a biased view of fiscal trends.115
Italy: the 2001 Deficit Outturn
In March 2002, the Italian Statistical Office (Istat) released the first statistics concerning
the 2001 net borrowing. Back then, the deficit was estimated to be 1.4 percent of GDP.
The outcome was very close to the range of forecasts published by international
organisations. After several revisions, the 2001 deficit is currently estimated to be 3.1
percent of GDP.
Changes to the 2001 net borrowing figures took place between June 2002 and March
2006. In particular, in June 2002 Istat raised its estimate from 1.4 to 1.6 percent of GDP,
primarily on account of higher healthcare expenditure. One month later, Eurostat
announced its decision on the accounting treatment for the purposes of the excessive
deficit procedure of securitisations carried out by governmental authorities. This implied
an upward revision of Italy’s deficit to 2.2 percent of GDP. In February 2003, Istat again
published a higher figure for the 2001 deficit: 2.6 per cent of GDP. This new estimate
was due to the availability of more complete information on the different government
tiers’ economic accounts. Two years later, in March 2005, Istat once more revised
upwards the 2001 deficit, to 3.0 percent of GDP, because of the reclassification of capital
transfers from the general government to the Ferrovie dello Stato (the state-owned
This section is a summary and update of the analysis conducted in two earlier papers (Balassone et
al., 2004 and 2006).
168
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