The name is absent

List of Figures

2.1 Primary Surplus, Debt and Output (% of GDP) 28

2.2 Posterior Density Functions for the Response of

the Primary Surplus to Debt Accumulation 42

2.3 Gross Debt Development 52

3.1 Projected Total Expenditure and Receipts (Hypothetical Data) 66

3.2 Social Security Benefit and Wage Profiles by Age 67

3.3 Consumption and Wage Profile by Age 68

3.4 Fiscal Imbalances of EU Countries (billions of €) 91

3.5 Imbalances of EU Countries - Percent of the Present Value of GDP 92

3.6 Demographic Components of Fiscal Imbalances 93

3.7 Budget Allocation Components of Fiscal Imbalances 93

3.8 Present Value of GDP through 2051 (billions of inflation adjusted €) 94

4.1 Results for the Total Balance 107

4.2 Decomposition of the Total Balance 107

4.3 Results for the Primary Balance 110

4.4 Decomposition of the Primary Balance 110

4.5 Results for the Total Revenues 111

4.6 Decomposition of the Total Revenues 111

4.7 Results for the Primary Expenditures 112

4.8 Decomposition of the Primary Expenditures 112

4.9 Results for the Total Balance 113

4.10 "Core" Discretionary Policy 114

4.11 Determinants of the Actual Budget Balance 116

5.1 General Government Spending, Revenue and Deficit (% of GDP) 121

5.2 Output Gap, Cyclically Adjusted Net Lending,
Spending and Revenue (% of potential GDP) 124

5.3 Impulse Responses 137

5.4 Forecast Error Variance Decomposition 140

5.5 SVAR-indicator of Output Gap, Structural Net Lending,
Expenditure and Revenues (% potential GDP) 143

5.6 Sensitivity Analysis: SVAR-indicators of

Structural Net Lending (% potential GDP) 149