5. The Dynamic Behaviour of Budget Components and Output -
the Cases of France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain 119
Antonio Afonso and Peter Claeys
5.1 Introduction 119
5.2 The Recent Fiscal Imbalances in the EU 120
5.3 A SVAR Model for Gauging Fiscal Indicators 126
5.4 Empirical Analysis 134
5.5 Conclusion 153
Appendix 5.A Data Sources 155
Appendix 5.B The Fiscal Indicator: Some Additional Results 156
Appendix 5.C Recursive Estimates of Budget Elasticities 157
Discussion, Jan in 't Veld 159
Part III Reliability of Fiscal Indicators 161
6. The Reliability of EMU Fiscal Indicators: Risks and Safeguards 163
Fabrizio Balassone, Daniele Franco and Stefania Zotteri
6.1 Introduction 163
6.2 The Reconciliation Account (SFA) 165
6.3 Deficit Revisions in Italy, Portugal, and Greece 168
6.4 Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Gimmickry: a Simple Model 172
6.5 Conclusions 177
Discussion, Joao NogueiraMartins 182
7. Uncertainty Bounds for Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances 185
Roy Barrell, Ian Hurst and James Mitchell
7.1 Introduction 185
7.2 Estimating the Output Gap and Its Uncertainty 186
7.3 Cyclically Adjusting the Budget Deficit 192
7.4 Uncertainty in the Adjustment 198
7.5 Implications and Conclusions 204
Discussion, Gyorgy Kopits 205
Bibliography 208
Index 219
More intriguing information
1. Models of Cognition: Neurological possibility does not indicate neurological plausibility.2. Expectations, money, and the forecasting of inflation
3. Does adult education at upper secondary level influence annual wage earnings?
4. Party Groups and Policy Positions in the European Parliament
5. Private tutoring at transition points in the English education system: its nature, extent and purpose
6. The Economics of Uncovered Interest Parity Condition for Emerging Markets: A Survey
7. Intertemporal Risk Management Decisions of Farmers under Preference, Market, and Policy Dynamics
8. ANTI-COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL CONTRACTING: THE DESIGN OF FINANCIAL CLAIMS.
9. The name is absent
10. The name is absent