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Contents

List of Tables                                                                         5

List of Figures                                                                     7

List of Contributors                                                                9

1. Introduction                                                              11

Martin Larch and Joao Nogueira Martins

Part I Long-term Sustainability                                   15

2. A Further Inquire about the Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the EU 17

Fernando Ballabriga and Carlos Martinez-Mongay

2.1   Introduction                                                               17

2.2   How to Assess the Sustainability of Fiscal Policy                         19

2.3  Government Debt Accounting                                       21

2.4   Determinants of the Fiscal Primary Surplus                               27

2.5  A Closer Look at the Response of Primary Surplus to Debt               40

2.6  Conclusion                                                          45

Appendix 2.A Complementary Tables                                   47

Appendix 2.B Unit Root Tests                                           50

Discussion, Fabrizio Balassone                                              56

3. Unfunded Obligation Measures for EU Countries                        59

Jagadeesh Gokhale

3.1   Introduction                                                               59

3.2  Unfunded Obligation Measures                                      61

3.3   Evaluating Unfunded Obligation Measures                              66

3.4   General Considerations of Fiscal and Generational Imbalance

Measures for EU Countries                                          73

3.5  Fiscal Imbalance Estimates for EU Countries                            75

3.6  Conclusion                                                          82

Discussion, Per Eckefeldt                                                     95

Part II The Measurement of the Underlying Budgetary Position and

Discretionary Fiscal Policy                                        97

4. Budget Balances Decomposed: Tracking Fiscal Policy in Austria           99

Peter Brandner, LeopoldDiebalek and Walpurga Kohler-Toglhofer

4.1   Introduction and Motivation                                             99

4.2   Related Literature                                                      100

4.3  A Stylised Framework                                             104

4.4   Results                                                                106

4.5  Conclusions                                                        114

Discussion, Jonas Fischer                                                 115



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