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List of Tables

2.1       Gross Debt Developments, 1977-2005 (% of GDP)                    22

2.2       Debt Accounting, 1977-2005 and 1977-1993                          26

2.3       Fiscal Reaction Function: Econometric Results for the Baseline Model   34

2.4 Estimates of the Response of the Primary Surplus
to Debt in Alternative Models                                        37

2.5       Robustness with Respect to the SFAs. Baseline Models                 38

2.6       Refined Estimates                                                   39

2.7       Posterior Distributions for δ                                           42

2.8       Government Balances, Interest Payments and

Primary Surpluses, 1977-2005                                        47

2.9       Implicit Interest Rates of Gross Government Debt, 1977-2005           48

2.10      Debt Accounting, 1994-1996, 1997-1999 and 2000-2005               49

2.11      Unit Root Tests for Gross Debt Series in % of GDP, 1977-2005          50

2.12 Unit Root Tests for Gross Primary Surplus Series

in % of GDP, 1977-2005                                         51

3.1 Total Revenues, Total Expenditures, Budget Balances, and

Consolidated Debt Levels (2004) - EU Countries and EU Average 84

3.2 Long-term Budget Reporting                                       85

3.3 Annual Changes in Fiscal Imbalances: Interest Accruals

and Shifting the Projection Window                                   86

3.4 Comparing Public Balances and Accruing Fiscal Imbalances

in EU Countries for 2005 (€ billions)                                   90

4.1        Estimation Results                                                    108

4.2       What Do the Different Budget Indicators Capture?                     116

5.1       OECD Output Elasticities of Various Budget Items                    127

5.2        Identification in the Long- and Short-term...                             132

5.3       Parameters γ and α                                              132

5.4      VAR Break Date Test                                          135

5.5       Large Fiscal Expansions and Contractions                              145

5.6       Parameters γ and α                                              148

5.7       Budget Elasticities from OLS on Equation 5.7                         151

5.8       Elasticities Imposed on Equation 5.5                                   152



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