List of Tables
2.1 Gross Debt Developments, 1977-2005 (% of GDP) 22
2.2 Debt Accounting, 1977-2005 and 1977-1993 26
2.3 Fiscal Reaction Function: Econometric Results for the Baseline Model 34
2.4 Estimates of the Response of the Primary Surplus
to Debt in Alternative Models 37
2.5 Robustness with Respect to the SFAs. Baseline Models 38
2.6 Refined Estimates 39
2.7 Posterior Distributions for δ 42
2.8 Government Balances, Interest Payments and
Primary Surpluses, 1977-2005 47
2.9 Implicit Interest Rates of Gross Government Debt, 1977-2005 48
2.10 Debt Accounting, 1994-1996, 1997-1999 and 2000-2005 49
2.11 Unit Root Tests for Gross Debt Series in % of GDP, 1977-2005 50
2.12 Unit Root Tests for Gross Primary Surplus Series
in % of GDP, 1977-2005 51
3.1 Total Revenues, Total Expenditures, Budget Balances, and
Consolidated Debt Levels (2004) - EU Countries and EU Average 84
3.2 Long-term Budget Reporting 85
3.3 Annual Changes in Fiscal Imbalances: Interest Accruals
and Shifting the Projection Window 86
3.4 Comparing Public Balances and Accruing Fiscal Imbalances
in EU Countries for 2005 (€ billions) 90
4.1 Estimation Results 108
4.2 What Do the Different Budget Indicators Capture? 116
5.1 OECD Output Elasticities of Various Budget Items 127
5.2 Identification in the Long- and Short-term... 132
5.3 Parameters γ and α 132
5.4 VAR Break Date Test 135
5.5 Large Fiscal Expansions and Contractions 145
5.6 Parameters γ and α 148
5.7 Budget Elasticities from OLS on Equation 5.7 151
5.8 Elasticities Imposed on Equation 5.5 152