Proceedings from the ECFIN Workshop "The budgetary implications of structural reforms" - Brussels, 2 December 2005



Table 2: Specific features of pre-reform periods in equation (1)

impact of dummy for reform
_______________________
R2 of regression, coefficient (standard error)________________________

Dependent variable

labour market________

I financial sector

tax policy___________

product market

______________________________________deficit and debt______________________________________

NLGXQ

0.23, -0.25 (0.51)

0.33, 0.46 (0.40)

0.30, 0.80 (0.45)*

0.22, 0.54 (0.45)

NLGXQA______

0.24, -0.09 (0.44)

0.29, 0.14 (0.36)

0.29,1.33 (0.41)***

0.24, 0.81 (0.39)**

DEBT_________

0.56, 3.59 (2.44)

0.48, -1.38 (2.27)

0.65, 3.50 (2.34)

0.56, 3.08 (2.22)

_____________________________________expenditures_____________________________________

YPGXQ

0.38, 0.60 (0.51)

0.34, -0.23 (0.41)

0.38, 0.57 (0.46)

0.39, 0.22 (0.44)

YPGXQA______

0.34, 0.44 (0.41)

0.30, -0.13 (0.34)

0.31, -0.03 (0.37)

0.35, -0.13 (0.36)

SSPGQ_________

0.47, 0.46 (0.28)*

0.43, -0.16 (0.22)

0.53,0.48 (0.023)**

0.48, 0.13 (0.23)

______________________________________revenues_______________________________________

YRGTQ

0.44, 0.35 (0.46)

0.40, -0.02 (0.38)

0.44,1.79 (0.41)***

0.44, 0.33 (0.41)

YRGQA_______

0.41, 0.28 (0.45)

0.37, -0.20 (0.38)

0.42,1.74 (0.41)***

0.41, 0.30 (0.39)

TYQ__________

0.18, -0.00 (0.27)

0.21, 0.02 (0.22)

0.22,0.86 (0.24)***

0.19, 0.36 (0.23)

TYQA________

0.18, -0.07 (0.26)

0.20, -0.10 (0.21)

0.20,0.84 (0.24)***

0.18, 0.28 (0.22)

_____________________________business cycle/labour market_____________________________

GROWTH

0.29, 0.00 (0.00)*

0.29, 0.00 (0.00)

0.32, -0.01 (0.00)*

0.28, -0.00 (0.00)

Growthfddv

0.21, 1.42 (0.47)***

0.20, 0.51 (0.34)

0.23, -0.64 (0.39)

0.19, -0.85 (0.40)**

outputgap

0.31, 0.11 (0.45)

0.34, 0.45 (0.32)

0.35, -0.16 (0.36)

0.32, -0.76 (0.37)**

UNEMPLOYMENT

0.44, 0.63 (0.36)*

0.41, 0.05 (0.28)

0.50, 0.55 (0.32)*

0.46, 0.27 (0.30)

Δ

UNEMPLOYMENT

0.32, -0.22 (0.17)

0.36, -0.13 (0.13)

0.36,0.42 (0.15)***

0.32, -0.03 (0.14)

___________________________consumer confidence/spending___________________________

CCONFST

0.29, 0.56 (0.19)***

0.35, 0.05 (0.16)

0.30, -0.39 (0.19)**

0.27,-0.44(0.16)***

SRATIO________

0.25, 0.10 (0.57)

0.28, 0.54 (0.48)

0.39, -0.84 (0.47)*

0.20, -0.01 (0.51)

Growthcpv

0.19, 1.16 (0.41)***

0.18, 0.16 (0.31)

0.21, -0.58 (0.35)*

0.18, -0.45 (0.35)

Growthihv

0.16, 4.98 (1.88)***

0.14, 2.42 (1.43)*

0.12, -1.35 (1.71)

0.12, 0.22 (1.73)

____________________________business confidence/investment____________________________

Busconfst

0.42, 0.43 (0.21)**

0.40, 0.37 (0.18)**

0.38, -0.42 (0.19)**

0.40, -0.03 (0.17)

Growthibv

0.26, 2.81 (1.50)*

0.26, 1.02 (1.11)

0.34, -2.08 (1.23)*

0.25, -2.28 (1.25)*

*, **, ***: significant at 10 %, 5 %, 1 % level respectively

For deficits the testing indicates that there are no significantly different overall budgetary
conditions on the eve of labour and financial market reforms compared to other periods. Contrary
to that, deficits tend to be significantly lower in periods preceding product market and tax
reforms. For example, the cyclically adjusted deficit is 1.3 percent of GDP lower in periods before
tax reforms are taking place compared to all other periods. The high significance in case of tax
reforms is hardly surprising: Budgetary leeway is helpful to initiate legislation aiming at reducing
tax distortions.

The separate look into both sides of the budgets does only bring about few but revealing
significant results: social spending is significantly up prior to labour market and tax reform and
tax revenues are up prior to tax reforms.

144



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