Proceedings from the ECFIN Workshop "The budgetary implications of structural reforms" - Brussels, 2 December 2005



between reform events are coded as “before” or “after” depending on their closeness to the
particular reform event.
53 The analysis of variance tests for significant differences in the mean of
economic and fiscal variables before, during, and after the reform event. Where the F-test
indicates significant overall differences between means, a pair wise test for differences in mean is
added
54 (employing the Bonferoni correction for multiple testing). Translated into the terms of
the stylized reform cycle above the test algorithm relates to differences between periods BR, R
and SA in combination (analysis of variance) and, subsequently, for differences between BR and
R, BR and SA and R and SA (pair wise tests).

Figure 2 depicts the evolution of the means in government primary net lending. Table 3
summarizes the results of the testing, figures A-1 to A-4 in the appendix show the development of
means of important further fiscal variables over the reform cycle.

53 Single years between reform events are dropped; the same applies to the central year of a three year reform pause.

54 The analysis of variance only allows inferring whether differences in mean among included classes are significant in total without saying which
pairs of means are significantly different. Simple t-tests would lead to biased results due to the problem of multiple testing.

146



More intriguing information

1. Optimal Tax Policy when Firms are Internationally Mobile
2. The urban sprawl dynamics: does a neural network understand the spatial logic better than a cellular automata?
3. A Unified Model For Developmental Robotics
4. The name is absent
5. The Impact of EU Accession in Romania: An Analysis of Regional Development Policy Effects by a Multiregional I-O Model
6. Migrating Football Players, Transfer Fees and Migration Controls
7. The name is absent
8. The name is absent
9. Intertemporal Risk Management Decisions of Farmers under Preference, Market, and Policy Dynamics
10. The name is absent