|
CCONFST______ |
1.43 |
- |
2.70* |
1<-1* |
4.40** |
-1<1** |
4.59** |
-1<1** |
|
SRATIO________ |
0.57 |
- |
0.35 |
- |
0.49 |
- |
0.11 |
- |
|
Growthcpv |
0.83 |
- |
2.75* |
1<-1* |
2.19 |
- |
4.69** |
-1<1** 0<1** |
|
Growthihv |
0.12 |
- |
1.24 |
- |
0.42 |
- |
0.11 |
- |
|
______________________________business confidence/investment______________________________ | ||||||||
|
Busconfst |
5.58*** |
1<-1*** 0<-1** |
3.33** |
1<-1** |
0.55 |
- |
1.48 |
- |
|
Growthibv |
1.83 |
- |
0.83 |
- |
2.89* |
-1<1* |
2.96* |
0<1* |
*/**/***: 1/5/10 per cent significance; in pair-wise difference tests: -1: period prior to reform, 0: reform period, 1:
period post-reform
It is a remarkable result that the fiscal variables - neither deficits nor expenditures nor revenues,
neither unadjusted nor cyclically adjusted - show any significant differences over the evolution of
the reform process. Only the deterioration of the primary deficit in the course of tax reforms
reaches a significance level not too distant from usually accepted critical levels (16 per cent).
Figure 2 suggests that this pattern is tax reform specific. For no other reform field there is an
increase of structurally adjusted deficits parallel to reforms. On the contrary, the (insignificant)
differences in means hint towards falling deficits during reform episodes.
In contrast to these largely insignificant results, the differences in terms of growth and other
business cycle related indicators are more pronounced. Growth clearly picks up quickly in the
course of tax and product market reforms. This upturn is supported by a fast increase in optimism
among consumers feeding into higher growth of private consumption. Obviously, the data point to
a swiftly materializing growth dividend for tax and product market reforms. In case of tax reforms
this finding hints to a partially self-financing effect of tax reforms which can also be seen from the
less pronounced reaction of the non-adjusted compared to the cyclically adjusted primary deficit.
Although labour market reforms are not associated with a significant decline in growth rates55
they have nevertheless a clear negative impact on the sentiment of consumers and firms.
Furthermore, a significant decline in private consumption is noticeable within the labour market
reform cycle.
This section’s findings allow some cautious conclusions about the relative important of reforms’
budgetary consequences. Demand management or compensation patterns are not strongly
supported. Neither for labour market, nor for product nor for financial market reforms, can any
systematic increase in the cyclically adjusted deficit be detected. For tax reforms the results
55 The F-test results in a confidence level of 0.16.
148